Above the Curve

I am currently reading The J Curve and so far I'm absolutely enthralled. While I still have yet to finish the book, it has already raised pertinent questions about geopolitical strategic thinking.

First, the basic premise of The J Curve is that a state’s stability is related to its degree of openness. Specifically, this relation manifests itself in a J – curve, in which the least open states are generally moderately stable and the most open states are generally very stable. Instability appears between a closed state and an open state, namely in a state’s transition from closed to open.

There are important implications to take away from this framework. Current rhetoric in American society, especially during (and even since) the Bush administration, proclaims democracy as a panacea and a model for every state on the face of the Earth. The J Curve suggests that, while democracy may be a factor in bringing states to the far right of the curve into a place of openness and stability, there will be an inevitable chaotic period of transition. Our experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan, attempting to bring them from closed authoritarian states to open democratic ones, illustrate the unavoidable difficulty in transition.

The United States seems to love globalization but hates instability. Our distaste for the protracted nature of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars reflect such sentiment. But these difficult transitions, really, should hardly be surprising. If the country is truly committed to a globalized world of open, stable states, it is going to have to develop some kind of unifying policy decisions and multilateral framework to address the inevitable chaotic transition periods. Or at least a stomach for it.