Balancing Act

Not to keep harping on the seemingly related words of “patience” and “Iran,” but Trita Parsi wrote today in Foreign Policy that it’s time for a “tactical pause” with Iran in regards to their nuclear program. The argument rests on the premise that, given Iran’s current domestic instability, the ruling regime is simply unable (willingness set aside) to diplomatically discuss its nuclear pursuits. And indeed, just today, Iranian riot police forcibly dispersed a gathering of people remembering those who died in the post-election violence.

Parsi’s article, on the surface, appears rational: step back, let the situation play itself out, but remain ready to “engage” at the proper time. However, a number of factors are working against this approach: a) Israel, and b) the authors’ own admission that “Iranian centrifuges keep spinning.” Soon, the Obama administration may find itself caught between the proverbial rock and a hard place - facing either a decision to stick to its declared September deadline and risk failure to agree or sacrifice the deadline and risk losing credibility.

To stick with the utilization of overused sayings, the wrench in this convoluted nuclear machinery is almost assuredly Israel - whose patience is running thin as their  fear over a nuclear Iran grows. An abandonment of the arbitrary September deadline may not only deal a blow to U.S. credibility in future nuclear dealings, it could potentially drive Israel to take matters into its own hands - which could very likely escalate into an even more unfortunate situation.

Ultimately, despite the full domestic plate of Iran’s leaders, it’s difficult to believe that the nuclear issue has fallen from their radar to the point that they’re unable to even initiate discussions on their program. A lot is on the line (the trend continues) for the Obama administration here - engagement policy (see yesterday’s “Engagement Policy Failure?”), peace in the Middle East, future nonproliferation policy, and arms control - to name a few. It is a situation that must be addressed delicately, yet firmly and consistently - if there’s one thing the world really hates, it’s uncertainty.