Beyond the State of Mexico: Elections in Coahuila and Nayarit

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

Although this weekend’s gubernatorial election in the Estado de México (Edomex) will grab the majority of national headlines, it is important to remember that this Sunday sees elections for the governorship in two other states, Coahuila and Nayarit. In both of these states the PRI has traditionally been the dominant political force and it is unlikely that this will change on July 3.

Nayarit is one of Mexico’s smaller states in terms of population but it is intriguing for two reasons. First, it is an important mining and agricultural center. Whereas the mining industry has done well in recent years, receiving high levels of foreign investment and seeing rising prices for minerals in the face of growing demand from Asia, the agricultural sector has remained rather depressed. Nonetheless, the Nayarit economy has grown since the deep recession of 2009, and currently has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Second, Nayarit is experiencing growing levels of violence, most of which is located in the capital city of Tepic. In 2009, the state had only 37 murders; in 2010 that number had risen to 377. This reflects a wave of violence that hit the states of Jalisco, Colima and Nayarit last year that was directly related to a conflict between the Zetas and the Beltran Leyva Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs). Despite the failure of state authorities to control the violence and provide public security, however, the public appears to be strongly in favor of electing another PRI governor. The party’s candidate, Robert Sandoval, led in the final opinion poll before the election with 49 percent, ahead of the PAN’s Marta Elena García at 33 percent and the PRD’s Guadalupe Acosta at 17 percent.
 

In Coahuila, we see a similar story. The state has traditionally been one of the economic powerhouses of Mexico, with strong investments in the automobile industry and in mining. Over the last two years, however, the state was hit hard first by the recession, and then by rapidly increasing drug violence, especially in the northern city of Torreón. In 2007, the total number of murders in the state stood at 18. In 2008, that rose to 78, increasing to 188 in 2009, and rising again to 381 in 2010. Of that total last year, 316 were committed in Torreón. The problems of Torreón reflect its proximity to the Golden Triangle of drug production in the state of Durango; to major drug routes heading to the United States; and to the ongoing struggle between the Sinaloa Federation DTO and the Zetas. Despite this wave of violence, the state has had one of the strongest economies in Mexico over the past twelve months, driven by strong investment and demand in the auto sector. The most recent poll in El Universal showed the PRI candidate, Rubén Moreira, way ahead of his rivals at 60 percent, with the PAN’s Guillermo Anaya at 35 percent, and the PRD candidate polling a paltry 3 percent.

When we add these predicted results to the expected PRI victory in the Estado de México, it looks like the makings of a splendid weekend for the PRI. These three victories will add to the momentum already behind the party and contribute to the notion that it is becoming an unstoppable force. We should expect visits and photo opportunities on Sunday from the party’s leading contender for the candidacy in 2012, Enrique Peña Nieto, to all three states.
 

Photos courtesy of Wikimedia Commons and the Senado de la Republica de Mexico