The Chicken and Egg Dilemma
Khamenei's recent rebuff to Obama's video reach out again raises the inevitable back-and-forth of how to try get negotiations off the ground. Obama's video message mentioned that Iran's place on the international stage
cannot be reached through terror or arms, but rather through peaceful actions that demonstrate the true greatness of the Iranian people and civilization.
This rhetorical strategy represents a balanced attempt to point out problematic Iranian behavior to assure those emphasizing the Iranian threat while trying to turn the opinion of Iranians by showing cultural respect. The inevitable tension between these differing statements could represent a nuanced negotiation strategy that can slowly make progress or may be seen as a contradictory, unworkable strategy. Not surprisingly, Khamenei made the case for the latter to the Iranian public by saying
He insulted the Islamic Republic of Iran from the first day . . . If you are right that change has come, where is that change? What is the sign of that change? Make it clear for us what has changed
The comments likely carry a degree of diplomatic red tape that is needed to appear resolute against evil America but the remarks nonetheless beg the questions of whether the U.S. should offer a concrete olive branch, such as unfreezing assets or easing sanctions, and, if so, what would be an appropriate good faith concession to try to get the ball rolling? The U.S. task to get things moving while trying to not disadvantage their hand at the negotiating table will be tough. Once at the table, the U.S. will also have to develop a strategy that does not seem like an insincere and rushed guise to garner more international support for pressure while also avoiding a negotiation quagmire that allows Iran to keep enriching away as talks repeatedly stall.
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