The Count Up to Global Zero

Lance Lord, a retired General and commander of the Air Force Space Command, published an intriguing op-ed in the International Herald Tribune.  He inverts the typical call for a count down to global zero by saying instead that we should start at global zero and count up to the amount of weapons needed to match the global security environment.  The process of estimating the security environment offers a strong possibility for cooperation with the Russians and an opportunity to show joint global leadership on the effort to reduce the number of nuclear weapons.  To achieve this, Lord argues

A far better approach would be to count up from zero. In other words, the U.S. and Russia would act upon the premise that they are no longer enemies, but each has legitimate security concerns about the new rapidly evolving, increasingly complex global nuclear lineup.  As a first step, the U.S. and Russia need to extend the inspection and verification provisions of the START Treaty, which is due to expire at the end of 2009. But the truly innovative part will be to pursue the goal of a new nuclear strategy that isn't driven by the current numbers of nuclear weapons each side possesses. Instead, it should be driven by the best estimates on what constitutes adequate deterrence levels against a broad array of new threats, including possible actions by countries like Iran and North Korea.  To determine those deterrence levels, the United States and Russia should seek to work out joint threat assessments. This would involve intense military-to-military contacts and engagement, along with the high-level political involvement that is necessary for such an effort to achieve its aims. 

What are the prospects for strong U.S.-Russian cooperation in the upcoming Obama Administration?  Will a comprehensive assessment of the security enviroment send strong nonproliferation signals to other nuclear powers?