A Critical Moment for Missile Defense

North Korea’s possible upcoming rocket launch will play an important role in the debate over missile defense. Japan, North Korea’s long-time nemesis, has declared it is dispatching naval destroyers equipped with anti-missile systems and is prepared to shoot down the test rocket if it approaches Japanese territory. Should Japan actually follow through on its threat, it could impact the future of missile defense initiatives well beyond Northeast Asia. Missiles represent an attractive weapon of choice for a number of rogue countries and groups. Aside from North Korea, Iran has made considerable progress in developing its own ballistic missile program and may soon be capable of striking America’s European allies. Hamas and Hezbollah, utilizing their own arsenals of Kaytusha and Kassam rockets, have successfully terrorized large sections of the Israeli populace. Other rogue parties, such as Syria and Sudan, see the West’s inability to stop such missiles and might consider beginning missile crash-programs as a means of enhancing their military arsenals. Should Japan successfully intercept North Korea’s rocket, proponents of missile defense will champion the system’s real-time success and make a push for further development. Iran, critically, may begin to feel that it has one less viable asset to threaten the West with as it negotiates over the future of its nuclear program. Our European allies, particularly Poland and Czechoslovakia, will demand that the promised US missile defense infrastructure finally be built on there territories. Ballistic missile defense, one of the most vexing security challenges since the Cold War, may finally be realized as a critical component in the never-ending effort to make the United States impregnable from foreign military attack. Should Japan fail to intercept North Korea’s rocket, however, critics of missile defense will pounce on the failure as proof of the wasted money showered for years on a technically unfeasible system and demand significant reductions in funding. Iran will be emboldened by the West’s continued inability to deal with rogue groups and likely accelerate their own ballistic missile program. Assuming that North Korea conducts a successful test, Japan’s failure to intercept will signal a continued absence of a missile defense strategy that leaves America open to potential attack from rogue regimes. Much rides on North Korea’s imminent test-launch and a possible Japanese response. The events of the next few days and weeks will likely help shape the future of missile defense systems for years to come.