Domestic Dynamic Heats Up in Pakistan

Over the weekend, the Pakistani military claimed significant strategic gains in Bajaur after the capture of strategically important towns such as Lowi Sam, Rashakai and Khazana. The take over of Lowi Sam in particular meant “the roads to Dir in Swat and Mohmand will now not be easily available to the Taliban to affect the outcome of the battle going on in Swat.” Despite progress in Bajaur, fighting between laskhars and pro-Fazlullah Taliban intensified in Swat with numerous killings on both sides.  After publicly beheading a lashkar leader, the Taliban warned: “This is a lesson for anyone who tries to oppose us.” In a press briefing the head of the Frontier Corps, Major General Tariq Khan, told reporters more than 1,500 militants had been killed since the beginning of the operation in early August. While he hailed the effort of tribal laskhars in assisting the government in flushing out militants, he rejected the recent Washington Post report which claimed the government was arming these laskhars and denied there were any plans to do so. Meanwhile, a mini Pak-Afghan peace jirga, led by prominent political figures from both countries is meeting today to devise a common strategy to negotiate with the Taliban.  This is especially timely given efforts by the Afghan government to hold Saudi mediated talks with the Taliban and the recent all-party resolution adopted by Pakistan ’s parliament calling for negotiations with militant groups. While the parliamentary resolution was endorsed by Army Chief Kayani, it is not clear how long the military operations in Bajaur will continue given that the FC chief asserted operations will continue for at least another year and a half.  He later retracted his comments when rebuked by Prime Minister Gilani, who asserted that the decision for army withdrawals will only be taken by the government. Gilani also condemned the repeated U.S. predator strikes in the tribal belt, most recently over the weekend in Wana, North Waziristan which killed 20 people.  This was the twelfth such incident over the past ten weeks and Gilani warned this could be disastrous to Pakistani efforts to isolate militants from the rest of the tribal population.