Domino Effect Limits

GSN reports that Indonesia will ratify the CTBT when the U.S. does. Add that to a 95 percent chance China ratifies if the U.S. does, according to Jeffrey Lewis, and 3 of the holdouts are taken care of.  That’s where things get really tough. It might be possible to pick off India and Pakistan in a deal they both find amenable but trying to get Israel, North Korea, Iran, and underrated CTBT obstacle Egypt to sign highlights why the Strategic Posture Commission opponents of the CTBT say there is a “near zero” chance the treaty comes into force.  Securing Chinese and Indonesian ratification may very well have some strategic benefits but it is important to keep in mind these are probably the two easiest signatures to get and the others will be substantially more difficult, if not impossible, to secure.