Eastern European Defense Review: Solutions for the Hungarian rotary-wing fleet modernization

Nov 9, 2010

Eastern European Defense Review: Solutions for the Hungarian rotary-wing fleet modernization

by Peter Kiss

9 November 2010

The natural disasters which struck Hungary in 2010 such as the great floods in May or the red sludge spill in October pointed out the fact that the Hungarian Defense Forces are playing a significant and inalienable role in the national disaster relief response system. Special equipment such as amphibious vehicles or transport helicopters can be used extensively in these situations. Among other military equipment, the Hungarian Mil Mi-8/Mi-17 (NATO reporting name “Hip”) medium-transport helicopters were used extensively to reinforce the dyke when it was about to breach in Edeleny or to evacuate injured residents from the villages that were hit by the toxic sludge.

Experts believe that a country similar to the size of Hungary should have two squadrons of medium transport helicopters in service. This means approximately 24 rotary wing aircraft in total.Yet currently the country has only two Mi-8 and seven Mi-17 ready for action and their numbers are in decline. The Mi-8s are going to be decommissioned at the end of this year and one of the Mi-17s is expected to receive a general overhaul in the near future. This implies that by next year the fleet is going to shrink to only 6 helicopters. Since the country has to maintain a 24-hour search and rescue capability which involves 4 of them, this leaves the Air Force with two, maybe three medium transport helicopters available to use. These numbers are completely unacceptable.

The situation is even worse if we remember that former Minister of Defense Imre Szekeres offered two such helicopters to the NATO-led ISAF mission in Afghanistan in 2009. The equipment and personnel is supposed to be deployed in 2011 to ease the shortage of helicopter lift in the theatre. However, Hungary does not have any suitable option to offer, since a combat theater such as Afghanistan requires helicopters equipped with modern defensive systems, proper ballistic protection, and the ability to withstand the most extreme weather conditions. Also, the pilots need specialized training for high-elevation terrains, night operations and for all of the challenges that Afghanistan has to offer. Currently the Czech Republic operates similar helicopters in the country, but they use the more advanced Mi-171 variant, and their personnel also underwent a 1.5-year-long training in the Alps, Israel and Texas.

Even though the Ministry of Defense is aware of this grim situation, there have been only a couple of hints and vague announcements about how to tackle it. The National Military Strategy which was released in 2009 announced that the rejuvenation of the helicopter-fleet is among the planned modernization programs, but stated no solid timeframe for that. However some announcements point out that the process is intended to take place between 2010 and 2014. It is fascinating that the Ministry of Defense is not discussing any details on the topic, leaving the people who are interested in the topic worried. Worried in a sense, that most of them (ex-military personnel, experts, fans of military technology) agree that most of the Defense Force’s previous modernization programs were not properly executed and may have resulted in diminished or lost capabilities (artillery, anti-armor, air-defense).

Nowadays military procurement tenders are highly covered by the media, so the fact that there is no such coverage today means no procurement tender either. Unsurprisingly the reason behind the silence is the lack of funds. Hungary was also affected by the financial crisis and even though Prime Minister Viktor Orban stated, that strengthening of the Defense Forces is not only a National issue, but a requirement from NATO, in FY 2010 Hungary’s military budget was only 1,17% of GDP as opposed to the NATO requirement of two percent.. According to the National Military Strategy, the budget shall increase annually to exceed 1.3% of GDP by 2013, but I’m afraid that the growth rate will be slowed by the austerity measures of the government. Reaching the NATO requirement is not likely to happen without a fundamental change from an inward looking political system and public opinion which is currently entangled in domestic issues.

It is worth noting however, that to ensure the quality of helicopter pilot training, and to save hours of operation of the fleet, the Ministry of Defense acquired 2 Robinson R44 light helicopters. This procurement is obviously just a temporary solution for a more complex problem, yet it is at least a step forward from the stalemate. The only problem about it was again the lack of transparency about the acquisition; it even took a while for the public to figure out the exact amount. It is hard to understand, that while the Ministry spends millions of Forints on promoting itself in the media, the transparent communication of something positive, like the arrival of a new “capability” is so withheld.

In connection with the arrival of the Robinsons, the Ministry at least reiterated that they are planning to refurbish the existing Mi-17s and Mi-24s. (The latter is the infamous “Hind” which earlier variants were used by the Soviet troops in Afghanistan) They also stated that they are looking for a replacement for the Mi-8s and plan to decommission them. According to this statement it can be outlined that the future fleet will consist of seven refurbished Mi-17s and at least ten (favorably 15-17) new helicopters. The current Mi-17s are inexpensive and reliable helicopters so it is not surprising that the Ministry is working on several options to keep and modernize them. It arose that in exchange for the MiG-29 jet fighter aircrafts which will be decommissioned in the end of 2010, the Russian Federation will modernize the Hungarian Mi-17s. No additional details were disclosed in this matter; however I am quite skeptical about why Russia would need old jets that are almost completely at the end of the life-cycle. Another, more precise plan was released recently, when the Minister of Defense Dr Csaba Hende announced that Hungary is expected to invoke Greece’s EUR 600,000 contribution to the Franco-British Helicopter Initiative and modernize one currently grounded Mi-17, plus two more helicopters from the Ministry’s funds, then send them to Afghanistan to reinforce the ISAF mission. (This is a slightly modified version of Szekeres’ offering so it is unclear whether the offer stands on firm ground.) If this plan comes to reality, the helicopters will be donated to Afghanistan in 2014 when Hungary withdraws from the country. The minister also noted that the Hungarian Defense Forces is intended to operate the recently decommissioned Finnish Mi-8s until the procurement tender is finished and the new helicopters are delivered. In any way whatsoever, these solutions can only be interim, and only justified by the fact that the country just went through a financial crisis and still has an IMF credit to redeem by 2013.

The heli-story is further complicated by the fact, that the predominant part of the Mi-24 “Hinds” are over 25 years old, which means that their fate must be decided soon: either a general overhaul and modernization or the decommissioning and replacement of the fleet with a more modern type. It would not just be cost-effective to combine the two acquisition/modernization programs, but it would further enhance the “systemic approach” in military procurements.

To further save money on the new acquisitions it would be advisable to purchase two specifications of the transport helicopters, one for low-intensity (domestic) use and one that can be offered to assist high-intensity external (NATO) missions. The latter variant would involve enhanced defensive systems, better ballistic protection and greater overall survivability, while the domestic variant would be less expensive with fewer of these systems. The predominantly interchangeable parts would allow a lower maintenance cost than in the case of two completely different variants for the two areas of operations.

The Market

Defense Procurement programs are not only a military or economic matter, but also a political issue. Hungary can purchase technology from European, Russian or American manufacturers. These deals have long-term consequences on the country’s foreign policy and the attitude of other nations towards Hungary. Armament procurements always involve a pinch of strategic orientation, since the bonds of a military deal can be sustained through decades with technology transfers, joint military exercises, etc.

On the market of medium transport helicopters Europe has different types to offer, but the only suitable alternatives are the Eurocopter Cougars. The AS532 and its “more bellicose” brother, the EC725 Super Cougar, are both reliable types with good survivability. The Super Cougar was specifically designed for Combat Search And Rescue (CSAR) missions so it’s ready to assist NATO operations once the personnel receives the proper training. Acquiring a European helicopter would be a positive sign for the continent’s defense industrial base by reassuring them that member states have a strong commitment to enhance the Union’s industrial capabilities. However the problem with choosing the “Eurocopter brothers” would be the fact that their armament options are very limited, so acquiring them could not solve the problem of the attack helicopters. Solve would mean the acquisition of a transport helicopter that could be armed in a way that they could replace the “Hind” without losing their capabilities. This would require a transport helicopter with the ability to equip and operate machine gun pods, unguided missiles and preferably guided missiles as well.

The all-European NHIndustries NH-90 is definitely not an option for Hungary as it is not only way too expensive, but initial versions had many teething-troubles according to a study by Bundeswehr officials. Even though these problems were fixed in the mass-production variants and the NH-90 is an advanced helicopter with state-of-the-art systems the country simply can’t afford it. Last but not least, the British-Italian AugustaWestland AW 101 is also not expected to be a serious player of the procurement-tender as it is simply oversized for the Hungarian requirements.

Buying Russian technology would be advisable, as both the upgraded version of the Mi-17 (the Mi-171) and the modernized version of the Hind (the Mi-25/35) are available on the export market, and their resemblance to their predecessors are obvious. This would significantly reduce the time and the cost of the personnel re-training.

Even though rumors say that Hungary intends to stick to the reliable Mi-171 it is worth noting that the helicopter lacks modern electronics and weapon systems and has lower overall survivability than the “western” models. Naturally, it is possible to order variants with modern electronics and communication systems, though this raises not just the quality but also the price tag to western levels. Another disadvantage is the more frequent maintenance requirement of the Mi-171 which can increase the life-cycle costs significantly. It’s worth noting that the life-cycle cost of the military equipments exceed their initial purchase price by 3-4 times so it is imperative to have an estimate for a 30 year timeframe. In case the government decides in favor of the Mi-171 it would be advisable to purchase a few of them with state-of-the-art defense systems such as infrared countermeasures, flare dispensers, laser detection and warning systems, etc. These could be offered for NATO missions as they would have all the protection needed in combat zones. One option related to the Mi-171 was proposed in 2008 by Lieutenant-Colonel James Dorschner in the Canadian-American Strategic Review. He contemplated the idea similar to the Franco-British Helicopter Initiative in which NATO would purchase existing helicopters from one country’s inventory (Mi-171s from the Czech Republic or Croatia) and send them to Afghanistan under ISAF command. The pilots and maintenance personnel were to be recruited from Eastern European Countries’ Defense forces, those who have significant experience in operating the “Hip” and could be serving in Afghanistan on a rotational basis. Contributing part of the Hungarian acquisition for a similar effort would both fulfill the country’s obligation towards the NATO and on the long term with the purchase of additional helicopters, the “domestic” fleet would be fully operational again. The fate of the helicopters in Afghanistan would be decided upon when their services are no longer required by the NATO.

From the American options, the Sikorsky UH-60, also called the “Black Hawk,” seems to be the most suitable. The production line of more than 2500 proves reliability and the helicopter demonstrated its survivability numerous times in Iraq and Afghanistan. These characteristics make the Hawk a good option to be purchased and offered for NATO missions in the future. It carries fewer soldiers than a Mi-171, but on the other hand, if the variants are equipped with the ESSS stub wings, the UH-60 can employ more sophisticated weapon systems, meaning that it can also replace the Mi-24 attack helicopter. I am aware that the intended roles of the two helicopters are different, but a small country like Hungary has no need for a dedicated attack helicopter especially as the Black Hawk can provide similar or enhanced capabilities for fire support, anti-armor or even troop ferry. However, the main reason behind purchasing the Sikorsky family is the fact that the company already developed a dedicated transport variant, the S-92. The S-92 was originally built for civilian operators; however in 2008 the company released the military version, called the H-92 Super Hawk. Many systems are inherited from the UH-60 so parts are interchangeable thus significantly reducing the maintenance costs provided that the country operates both variants. On a longer term, replacing the Mi-24s with fewer armed Black Hawks (e.g. AH-60L), the Mi-8s with H-92s and Mi-17s with Black Hawks, the country would obtain a rotary-wing fleet capable of executing a wide range of (coalition and domestic) missions. Purchasing the helicopters from the same manufacturer could further lower the unit prices.

Another option for cost-effective acquisition could be the participation in the United States Foreign Military Sales program, in which instead of negotiating directly with the manufacturer, the U.S. government procures defense articles and services on behalf of the foreign customer. The foreign customer benefits from U.S. government procurement practices, the total package approach, and economies of scale achieved through combining FMS purchases with DoD’s. Entering into a major FMS program also represents the beginning of a long-term relationship with the U.S. military. This includes access to joint training and doctrine and increased opportunity for interoperability should U.S. and foreign forces need to operate together in military operations. Hungary is a participating country of the FMS program since 1996 and closed many deals with the United States so far. At the end of September the government of Sweden requested a similar deal which involved a total of 15 UH-60M BLACKHAWK Helicopters and associated parts, defensive equipment and logistical support for a complete package worth approximately $546 million. The package includes all elements of the logistics support including personnel training and training equipment. Columbia requested a similar deal for nine Helicopters with less defensive equipment for approximately $162 million, so this means unit prices can vary significantly and it is possible to acquire these helicopters less expensively especially if they will only be used domestically. The Hungarian procurement program could be even less expensive if the country would focus more on Super Hawks and only purchase several Black Hawks. It would be also advisable to stretch the procurement process for several years by acquiring two-three Helicopters per year so that the military budget would stay sustainable. The fact that some of the new helicopters (UH-60s) could become deployable in NATO missions within 1.5-2 years might give the program a faster approval from Congress, since it would imply that the US is ready to assist states who take their NATO commitments seriously.

All of the above is just a result of “loud thinking” as any deal will be decided upon by the government after considering every related factor. My main suggestion however would be, that no matter what the Ministry chooses, the main emphasis has to be on the systemic approach, meaning that the future fleet should only operate Eurocopter or Mil or Sikorsky for both troop transport and fire support roles. Choosing the Mils would be the least expensive option, however Hungary as a member of both NATO and the EU sooner or later should operate “western” technology in order to increase interoperability with the Allies. (According to NATO, interoperability means commonality of concepts, doctrines and procedures, compatibility of equipment and interchangeability of combat supplies.) Since a procurement of this scale determines Hungary’s compatibility of equipment for at least 30 years this question has to be taken seriously. In case the country decides in favor of Russian technology, it is the minimum to procure the helicopters with NATO compatible electronics and communications systems as Hungary, as member of the Transatlantic Alliance is determined to represent itself in future coalition missions too. One thing is certain, however: the request for proposals have to be finalized soon as the situation of the rotary-wing fleet is getting critical. Even this short summary pointed out many aspects of the question that the Ministry has to deal with and by the time the request for proposal is answered, the country should have a solid concept towards the decision.