EIA Energy Outlook 2008

This morning, the CSIS Energy and National Security Program hosted a presentation by Guy Caruso of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration (EIA). Caruso spoke at CSIS about the International Energy Outlook 2008 - a report recently released by EIA that looks at energy trends up to the year 2030. In this time period, the report projects in its reference case that energy consumption is expected to grow by 50 percent. Looking closer, the report proposes that energy demand will grow by 85 percent in non-OECD states, due largely to strong predicted economic growth in those states, while it grows 19 percent in OECD member states.

Carbon dioxide emissions, Caruso said, will increase at an annual rate of 1.7 percent, mirroring the growth in energy consumption. In total, the report claims that carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 51 percent, from 28.1 billion metric tons to 42.3 billion metric tons, between 2005 and 2030. Again, non-OECD growth seems to play an important role. Whereas, in 2005, non-OECD emissions surpassed OECD emissions by 7 percent, the non-OECD states are expected to exceed OECD members’ emissions by 72 percent in 2030.

The report details many of the trends that the EIA expects to see in energy use by type, and yet more differences can be observed between non-OECD and OECD states. Whereas hydroelectricity is well established in many OECD states, it is expected to grow substantially in non-OECD states. In OECD states, Caruso pointed to an increase in wind and biomass as areas of predicted growth.

While the report calculates many factors into the equation, the EIA did not assume any “above the ground constraints”- such as sanctions or other international agreements- after 2015. Likewise, technological advancements such as carbon capture and storage were not included in the calculations for the Outlook. Despite limitations, the report provides up-to-date insight into projected global energy needs for the coming years.

For audio/video output from the event, click here.