Ernesto Cordero Joins the Campaign Trail: Is it too little too late?

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

On Friday September 9, Ernesto Cordero, Mexico's Minister of Finance, stepped down from his post and declared himself a contender for the PAN presidential candidacy in 2012. The event was far from a surprise; most observers had been waiting for months for Cordero to formally announce his aspiration to the presidency, although in recent weeks Cordero had tried to give the impression that he was entirely devoted to preparing Mexico for the coming economic and financial instability originating in Europe and the United States and not concerned with running for elected office.

Public and media reaction to the announcement was muted, which is unsurprising given the fact that Cordero has been seen as a "gray" candidate ever since his name was first mentioned in connection with the PAN candidacy. This, despite the fact that Cordero is commonly viewed as the first choice of President Calderón to succeed him. A poll taken shortly before his campaign launch gave Cordero support of only around 7-8 percent of Panistas, and only 5 percent of the broader electorate.

Part of the problem comes from his record as a government bureaucrat in which he has moved from position to position within the Calderón administration, rising finally to his post of Finance Minister. Along the way he appeared to have taken on roles in areas in which he had little experience or qualifications, and can lay claim to few policy achievements. Recently, Cordero has made a series of public statements lauding the firm management of the Mexican economy during the crisis of 2009 and for the preparations that have been made for any future turbulence. While he can legitimately argue that he has maintained a steady path through choppy waters, it should not be forgotten that Cordero inherited a stable Mexican macroeconomic situation from former Finance Minister Agustín Carstens, and it is Carstens who is seen as the mastermind of Mexico's preparation for the short- and medium-term future. Regardless of this, the fact is that the Calderón administration in general is seen by the Mexican public as having failed to live up to its myriad promises of job creation and as being responsible for rising poverty levels in the country.

The second major obstacle for Cordero is his lackluster performance with the Mexican media and his poor public image. Cordero has repeatedly made errors in his public statements and in interviews speaks unconvincingly in generalities and vagaries. A particularly poor performance on a late-night political talk show at the end of August, where Cordero looked uncomfortable as the hosts pushed him on various topics, is representative of Cordero's problems. In cartoons and on billboards he is commonly portrayed as a Mr. Bean-like character, bumbling and inept, and it is clear that he lacks the folksy appeal of Josefina Vázquez Mota, let alone the slick packaging and presentation of Enrique Peña Nieto.

The official arrival of Ernesto Cordero, therefore, to the PAN's presidential nomination contest is unlikely to have a major impact on the final outcome. Josefina Vázquez Mota is now firmly ahead of her nearest rival, Santiago Creel, and a forthcoming debate between the three will likely play in her favor, and will damage Cordero's chances even further. Cordero's one hope is that President Calderón will be able to generate enthusiasm in the party for his nomination, something that to date has not been forthcoming.

Many thanks to Michael Graybeal for providing advice and insight in this blog entry.