Fork in the Road

Robert Norris of NRDC fame had an op-ed in the Times yesterday talking about Obama’s vision for a nuclear free world.   Based off of the recent report he did with Hans Kristensen and Ivan Oelrich (PDF located here) he argues for a change in targeting strategy that would us to drastically reduce the number of weapons we need.  Without discussing the findings of the report itself, there is an interesting statement Norris makes regarding the looming NPR:

Powerful constituencies throughout the government would rather continue with things as they are, albeit at lower numbers. Radical change of the kind proposed here is threatening to entrenched interests and there will surely be resistance to Mr. Obama’s proposals. It is unclear at this point whether the outcome of the review will reverse decades of tradition or whether the status quo will prevail [emphasis added]

Herein lies one of the major difficulties facing the NPR that people cite.  Those to the right are angry that START negotiations are occurring ahead of the NPR which should guide decisions about force posture rather than vice versa (e.g., the Payne cart/horse argument).  Those to the left are worried the NPR will derail the new found momentum in Prague.  The latter crowd should be at least somewhat pleased by the Michael Vickers’ statements that showed up in GSN yesterday:

A major nuclear weapons review under way at the Defense Department should result in “progress” toward implementing U.S. President Barack Obama’s long-term vision for disarmament, a senior Pentagon official said today (see GSN, June 1). ”The vision is clear and I think progress will be made,” Michael Vickers, who advises Defense Secretary Robert Gates on strategic capabilities and operations, told reporters at a Defense Writers Group breakfast.

The real question will be where various camps set the bar for “progress.”  The black and white lens of status quo versus “reversing decades of tradition” may not be the ideal template to evaluate the NPR.  For example, the fact that the 12 Strategic Posture Commissioners from vast ends of the political spectrum could agree in principle the US/Russian arms control is a big deal in many ways.  Getting buy-in from the Pentagon on similar types of SPC consensus steps viewed as huge by some and miniscule to others may actually be a big achievement even though it will be lambasted as the nuclear priesthood trying to keep control of their toys with only a few minor tweaks.  It is valuable that Vickers and Nacht understand the vision and will use that to inform their thinking no the NPR.  While this vision will help guide their thinking, President Obama’s “not in my lifetime” caveat should be remembered when people argue for what this NPR should do.