The Kashmir-Kabul Connection and US Diplomacy

by Mehlaqa Samdani

It remains to be seen whether or not Secretary Clinton succeeded in reducing the trust deficit between the United States and Pakistan during her recent visit to the region.  What is clear, however, is that she made significant progress towards a resumption of dialogue between India and Pakistan. 

According to reports, not only did Clinton’s visit to the region prompt India’s withdrawal of 15,000 troops from Indian-held Kashmir, but was also the reason behind the Indian prime minister’s announcement that India was ready for talks with Pakistan without pre-conditions. 

This is somewhat surprising given India’s reluctance to allow third parties to interfere on the question of Kashmir.  In fact, it had been successful lobbying by the Indian government that had led to “Holbrooke’s responsibilities (being) limited to AfPak” and “who has allegedly been pressured to avoid using the K-word - Kashmir”.

 Experts believe that apart from US pressure, the Indian government itself is now ready for talks due to “growing voices within India…calling for a dialogue with Pakistan”.  Also, “Pakistan’s acceptance of the trouble emanating from its borders is viewed by many in India as a starting point for future negotiations”.

Prior to the Mumbai attacks, Pakistan and India had made significant progress on a variety of fronts. The countries had completed the fifth round of the composite dialogue, the strategic framework under which India and Pakistan discuss important issues such as Siachen, Tulbul Navigation Project/Wullar Barrage, Sir Creek, economic and commercial cooperation and friendly exchanges, terrorism and drug trafficking, peace and security, and, critically Jammu and Kashmir. 

In fact, both Musharraf and Singh have recently acknowledged that the two countries had come very close to ‘clinching a deal’ in 2007 and the basis of the talks had been Musharraf’s 4-point formula: “make the LoC irrelevant; demilitarize Kashmir; give self-governance to the Kashmiris; and have a joint mechanism comprising Pakistan, India and Kashmiris to oversee the transition and make it work.”

At that time, both governments had been beset by internal domestic opposition, which in India’s case at least is no longer the case.   Pakistan also seems eager to begin dialogue and has already appointed an envoy for this purpose. 

The United States is likely to play a critical role in facilitating these talks especially since there is growing recognition among US policymakers that stability in Afghanistan will only be achieved if Pakistan’s concerns regarding its eastern border are addressed. 

In fact, according to an Asia Times report, the withdrawal of Abdullah Abdullah from the planned runoff election took place due to US pressure.  In exchange for Abdullah’s withdrawal, who was “considered pro-India by Islamabad…Pakistan's military…agreed to actively mediate between Washington and the Taliban over a reconciliation plan that will allow the US to exit from Afghanistan”