Mexican Elections Summer Update

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

Since the excitement of the July elections, in which the PRI emerged dominant in the polls, there has been little change in the standings of the three main parties, although the feeling of momentum behind the PRI has of course grown. Within the PAN and the PRD, furthermore, interesting and important developments have taken place that makes their prospects even weaker than before. A recent Reforma poll put likely PRI voters at 45 percent, with the PAN receiving 29 percent and the PRD trailing at 13 percent.

Within the PAN, despite the need to rapidly define one or two leading candidates (as suggested on this website), the field remains crowded and confusing. From July 16-18, the party held its annual conclave in which it debated electoral strategies for 2012. At the end of the conclave a meeting took place between six of the seven PAN contenders and Gustavo Madero, the party leader. At that meeting a decision was taken to reduce the field from seven to three contenders within ten days. Although Javier Lozano, the Employment Minister, dropped out two days later, and then Heriberto Félix, the Social Development Minister announced he would no longer keep his hat in the ring, there remain 5 major players who show no signs of leaving the race. Santiago Creel has launched a speaking tour of the country (which he claims is not an official campaign in order not to break election rules), although Josefina Vázquez Mota has begun to consolidate her support and looks increasingly like the frontrunner in the PAN race. Of the other remaining PAN contenders, only Ernesto Cordero appears to have the necessary support to be able to challenge these two, and he is currently occupied with the prospect of a double-dip recession in the United States and its potential impact on Mexico. Although PRI politicians (and Creel) have called for him to resign from his position as Minister of Finance if he intends to run for president, Cordero does not want to be seen to be abandoning the ministry at a time of great uncertainty. The highly unstable international economic climate has come at a particularly bad time for the PAN as the party was hoping to be able to claim sound economic management, high levels of growth, and job creation in the run-up to July 2012.

The PRD is facing a similar problem, although there the field of contenders is easier to grasp as two names, Marcelo Ebrard and Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), continue to be the only contenders. As discussed in this blog previously, although AMLO is preferred by seven out of 10 PRD voters, his national image is so negative that he would likely poll only around 10% if the presidential election were held today. Marcelo Ebrard, on the other hand, although lacking sufficient support within the party at the present time, is seen by party elites and by independent analysts as being capable of pulling together voters from across the political spectrum that are reluctant to see a PRI president come into power. Well-respected writer Carlos Fuentes recently declared that Ebrard is the best option for the left in 2012, and anti-AMLO groups within the party have begun to gel around Ebrard’s candidacy. However, it remains to be seen if Ebrard’s higher visibility in recent weeks will bring him any reward in the opinion polls. Although the party is launching a series of TV ads featuring AMLO, Ebrard, and other party leaders in an attempt to generate the appearance of unity, the party seems doomed to division and internal conflict in the near future.

The PRI, on the other hand, is relishing its position as front-runner, with party leaders calling for cohesion and consistency within the party, and beginning to focus on the possibility of passing much-needed reforms in order to smooth the way for their expected governance post-July 2012. The leading contender for the PRI nomination, Enrique Peña Nieto, continues to dominate with 72 percent of the party vote versus Manlio Fabio Beltrones with 9 percent. The party nomination now appears to be a mere formality for Peña Nieto, and his forthcoming launch of a Twitter page is another indication that the race is about to move into a higher gear.