Mexico's Cabinet Shuffle and Electoral Prospects

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

On Friday the 7th of January, President Felipe Calderón announced a number of major changes in his cabinet. Two high profile figures, Juan Molinar Horcasitas (Minister of Transport and Communication) and Georgina Kessel (Minister of Energy), left their posts, with Dionisio Perez Jacome and Jose Antonio Meade replacing them, respectively. Calderón also replaced his presidential chief of staff, Luis Felipe Bravo Mena, with Roberto Gil Zuarth. Calderón has shuffled his cabinet a number of times since taking office, but the timing of this particular shuffle is significant. As the countdown to July 2012 continues, there are two main concerns in the PAN, the president’s party. First, there is a sense of urgency in getting necessary reforms through Congress before the end of Calderón’s term, especially as it looks like any PAN candidate will have an uphill battle to win the presidency. One major pending legislative item is a Senate vote on further reducing PEMEX’s tax load. Meade is considered a savvy political operator who will be able to aid PEMEX in this endeavor. Moreover, PEMEX is attempting to shift its pensions’ liabilities to the government. PEMEX’s pensions commitments are massive, effectively making the company bankrupt, as the liabilities outweigh PEMEX’s assets. Meade is seen as the ideal person to handle this pensions issue, since he handled the government’s successful pensions reform program last year.
 

The appointment of Roberto Gil Zuarth as chief of staff is also significant with regards to the government’s legislative agenda. Carlos Loret de Mola, a political commentator in Mexico, has argued that Gil Zuarth will now be handling the politics of the Los Pinos agenda, rather than Interior Minister Jose Francisco Blake, an arrangement that is seen as more propitious to securing legislative success. Gil Zuarth is a former Congressional representative himself, and understands the legislative process as well as maintaining healthy relations with the other parties.
 

Secondly, the race to determine who will become the PAN candidate in 2012 is well underway, with three leading contenders currently vying for the nomination: Santiago Creel, Ernesto Cordero and Alonso Lujambio. The appointments of Meade and Perez-Jacome to cabinet posts reflect well on Ernesto Cordero, as both men served under him as under-secretaries of finance. With such a strong core of support for Cordero at the heart of the government, the chances of his securing the nomination have increased. On the other hand, the appointment of Gil Zuarth as chief of staff will be an important factor in determining relations between the president and the potential candidates, as he is now the gatekeeper to Felipe Calderón, and it is not clear if there is a positive relationship between the new chief of staff and Ernesto Cordero. Time will tell.
 

Lastly, it is worth noting that the appointment of Kessel as head of Banobras, the National Public Works and Services Bank, may play a role in the upcoming elections. Banobras is responsible for financing public works of all kinds, including major infrastructure projects. Her close relationship with Calderón may influence the bank’s choice of where to locate upcoming projects, potentially in areas that are politically important in the upcoming election. The full implications of the cabinet reshuffle will continue to emerge, but it is clear that the changes will impact the legislative and electoral landscapes in the following months.
 

Photo courtesy of the Presidencia de la Republica de Mexico