China Jr.

Apparently Kim Jong Il isn’t just a puppet in Team America.  Or so Anne Applebaum writes in her Washington Post piece.  Her main argument is that North Korea is currently acting belligerent because “China wants them to do so.”  The reasons behind this admittedly “speculative” scenario (described as “Awful Journalism” in the Morning Joe):

1. China is the one country that actually has influence over North Korea. Not only is China the only country to maintain frequent diplomatic and security contacts with North Korea, but China could, if it wanted to, topple the North Korean regime tomorrow. China could cut off North Korea’s oil. China could shut the border to trade. Or China could take the opposite tactic and open the border: Refugees would flee and the regime would crumble, much as East Germany did 20 years ago this summer.

Sure, China more influence over North Korea than other powers. They probably *could* topple the fragile regime if they wanted to but why would they do that? The last thing China wants is a huge refugee crises on its border and Pyongyang probably knows that. More importantly, there is a pretty large logical leap from “has influence” to calling the shots. Admittedly, China and North Korea share a special relationship as Communist states which helps explain in part why China drags its feet in the UNSC and Six Party Talks. North Korea is a very tricky situation for China, however, because they want to remain good friends while preventing massive instability in a country that borders them (a difficult strategy to calibrate because the regime is so fragile and acts recklessly) but also don’t want instability on the Peninsula instilling fear in Japan and others which could result in destabilizing military measures.

2. China has ambitions to replace the United States as the dominant power in East Asia. For proof, look no further than the money the Chinese have spent lately on expanding their navy, which now includes at least 70 submarines, 10 of which are thought to be nuclear . . . And if, as seems likely, the Obama administration does not come up with a way to stop North Korea’s nuclear program, what conclusions will the South Koreans draw — not to mention the Japanese? Or the Taiwanese? Might some of them not conclude that the American security umbrella no longer seems quite as wide and strong as it used to? Might they not conclude that they are better off under Chinese protection?

It is beyond the purview of this increasingly long blog post to get into an in-depth discussion of Chinese strategic ambitions in East Asia. That said, in an off the record, unclassified forum a former high level Bush administration official remarked that he was impressed by what the Chinese have been able to do with their capabilities, particularly in submarines, but he, like many, are still unsure what to make of overall Chinese ambitions. Seems like a pretty reasonable assessment. The claim, however, that South Korea, Taiwan, and most importantly Japan would seek Chinese protection has no discernible backing. Japan and China have a very tumultuous history that still resonates today in their mutual suspicion of one another. Japan’s primary security threats are North Korea and  China.  The last thing Japan would do, particularly in this hypothetical world where North Korea is actually China Jr., is tell China they’ve won in the region and try to become a junior partner with protection benefits.  If it is true the US umbrella “no longer seems quite as wide and strong” (not a foregone conclusion as evidenced by Obama’s affirmation of our extended deterrent to Prime Minister Aso on May 26), it makes a lot more sense for Japan to vigorously explore their own nuclear option rather than seek solace with China.  China is often praised for its very nuanced foreign policy strategy to achieve its strategic ambitions (whatever they are).  Trying to convince regional competitors to defect by having a puppet state test nuclear weapons probably doesn’t fall in that strategy.

3. Despite the risks, though, there are good reasons for the Chinese to prod Kim Jong Il to keep those missiles coming. By permitting North Korea to rattle its sabers, the Chinese can monitor President Obama’s reaction to a military threat — without having to deploy a threat themselves.

This justification relies on the faulty assumption that the United States would response to military threats from China and North Korea in similar ways. Gates didn’t sent the X Band radar to the initial North Korean rocket/satellite launch because it would provide unnecessary attention to Kim Jong Il, costs a lot of money, and isn’t needed for a rocket that most likely can’t reach the U.S. That doesn’t mean that if China starts firing missiles off the coast of Taiwan the U.S. automatically declines, for example, sending another aircraft carrier to the region. “Obama’s reaction to a military threat” implies a blanket response that probably doesn’t exist.

4. They can see how serious the new American administration is about controlling the spread of nuclear weapons — without having to risk sanctions or international condemnation of their own nuclear industry.

It may be the case that China is watching the North Korean situation closely to help figure out how it wants to determine its stance on issues like Iran in the Security Council. The above statement, however, seems to be getting at China’s desire to proliferate nuclear weapons and related technology to other countries. While China has a bad track record of exporting valuable nuclear-related technologies to places like Iran and Pakistan, a statement like this needs more explanation than a sentence. The Chinese view on nonproliferation has come a long way in the past couple of decades and there are a number of proliferation-related threats that could seriously undermine Chinese interests and they know that. Their export controls can always be improved but the implicit assumption that China wants to spread “nuclear weapons” is a very bold assertion.

5. They can distract and disturb the new administration — without harming Chinese American economic relations, which are crucial to their own regime’s stability.

This begs the question of “distract from what?” which Applebaum might answer Chinese military modernization but even without North Korea trying to wreck havoc in East Asia increasing Chinese military capabilities are pretty far down on the agenda behind issues like “AfPak” (or “PakAf” apparently to reflect the state of peril in Pakistan..) and Iraq.

Kim Jong Il may look like a puppet but the claim he is one rests on some unconvincing logic.