Missile Defense Update (More to Come...)

The news media is full of reports that the US has "scrapped" missile defense in Europe.  In a press conferences a few minutes ago, Obama and Gates attempted to clarify the new US approach to missile defense.  Obama and Gates said that two factors drove the shift away from the current proposal for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic:

1) Updated Intel - They argued that new intel since 2007 indicates that Iran's short- and medium-range missiles are more of a threat to US forces in Europe and our European allies than long-range intercontinental ballistic missiles.

2) Improvements in missile defense technology - According to Obama, land- and sea-based interceptors are proven, cost effective, and can offer protection sooner.  He reiterated that his goal was to invest in missile defense systems that are "proven and cost effective."  Gates added that improved sensor technology has enhanced the capability of current missile defense and that SM3 capabilities have had 8 successful tests since 2007.

Gates offered more specifics about the future plan.  He said that missile defense will be deployed in two phases.  In phase one, the US will move Aegis ships equipped with SM3 capabilities to counter the threat of Iranian missiles.  In phase two, which will begin around 2015, the US plans on deploying land-based SM3s, after consultation with our allies.  Gates noted that consultations about hosting SM3s will begin with Poland and the Czech Republic.  Gates also said that the US would look to deploy additional sensors in Northern and Southern Europe to improve our capabilities.

Obama and Gates both followed a threat-based approach to justify the new direction in missile defense.  Both were clear that as new threats developed (for example, if Iran actually acquired an ICBM capability), the US would adapt its missile defense commitments as necessary.

However, both were clearly aware of the perception that the move would be seen as abandoning our allies and giving in to Russia.  Obama said that he had notified Russia that the change was made based on the Iranian program, not Russian objections.  Obama also included statements that were intended to assure Poland and the Czech Republic that we are still committed to their defense.  Obama said that the new approach was consistent with efforts to develop additional missile defenses within NATO and reaffirmed the US commitment to defend our NATO allies based on Article V obligations.  Gates said that reports that the US is "scrapping" our defense of European allies are either "misinformed or misrepresenting reality".

If you take Obama and Gates at their word, this decision was based exclusively on the specific threats posed by Iran's ballistic missile program.  However, there might have been other motivations that the administration isn't letting on.  More on this later...