The Missing Ingredient: the JCS

Micah Zenko had a piece in the Guardian today about the importance of the including the view of the uniformed military, namely the Joint Chiefs, if massive nuclear reductions are seriously to be pursued.  He notes,

Before the civilian leadership in the Obama administration can move toward a world without the bomb, it must initiate a clear and open dialogue with the Joint Chiefs of Staff - the collective heads of the US armed services, charged with protecting the nation and providing military advice to the president. Without the overt support of the Joint Chiefs, no president - much less a Democrat with little national-security experience - will have the political capital to negotiate with the international community, or implement at home, an end to nuclear weapons.

While the support of the JCS is no doubt important in pursuing the Obama administration's arms control agenda, that support is by no means a given.  The article lists a number of statements from generals who question the ultimate utility of nuclear weapons and ties in the requirement of the NPR to "be used as a basis for establishing future United States arms control objectives and negotiating positions" to conclude that, "Once the Nuclear Posture Review has been completed, and the uniformed military are on the record, President Obama will have the political cover to negotiate the series of multilateral treaties." The potential problem with the argument is the disconnect between the JCS's theoretical view of the reduced strategic value of nuclear weapons and securing on the record support for large reductions in the short term. While getting rid of nuclear weapons may be seriously considered some time down the road few people support that possibility of that occurring in the current strategic environment.  As stated in the interim report (PDF) of the Strategic Posture Commission, "Given the uncertainties in the factors affecting global security today, the need for deterrence (and extended deterrence) could extend for an indefinite future." The Commission's final report will certainly be taken into account the by JCS given that names of those involved (including one of the Four Statesmen Bill Perry) and will also help influence the NPR.  Even if some members of the JCS ultimately want to get rid of nuclear weapons they may not be able to actually advocate that for quite some time.