Nonproliferation News - October 14, 2009

FISSILE MATERIAL
Russia's new military doctrine allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes
RIA Novosti

A different regime change in Iran
Financial Times by Richard Haass

India tests nuclear-capable missiles
UPI

U.S. Official Praises China's Role in North Korea Negotiations
WSJ by Jason Dean

EAST ASIA
1. U.S. Official Praises China's Role in North Korea Negotiations
WSJ by Jason Dean
A senior U.S. diplomat praised China's role in dealing with North Korea and said Chinese leaders believe they received confirmation from Pyongyang on recent visits that North Korea would be willing to return to multilateral talks about nuclear disarmament on terms acceptable to the other parties.

2. US-NKorea talks hinge on renewed six-party process
AP by Christopher Bodeen
The United States will not meet directly with North Korea until Pyongyang commits to rejoining six-nation disarmament talks and abides by commitments to dismantle its nuclear programs, a top U.S. diplomat said Wednesday.

3. Uncertainties surrounding N. Korean regime deepening: S. Korea 
Yonhap News by Sam Kim
Uncertainties in North Korea continue to grow, South Korea's defense minister said Tuesday, citing the communist rival's ongoing nuclear and missile programs and persisting rumors over the health of its leader Kim Jong-il.

4. US documents point to secret Japan nuclear pact
AFP
DESPITE decades of denials by Washington and Tokyo, US officials believe they enjoyed a secret pact to transport nuclear weapons through Japan, newly declassified documents showed.

MIDDLE EAST
5. Benchmarks prove elusive in Iran talks
Asia Times by Kaveh L. Afrasiabi
The October 1 talks in Geneva between Iran and the "Iran Six" nations dealing with its nuclear portfolio, have been hailed as a minor success by both sides and a follow-up meeting is scheduled in the Austrian capital Vienna for October 19. Clinton is acting as a shrewd saleswoman of coercive diplomacy, following the seemingly logical justification that the US should pursue "both tracks". Yet "sticks" and "carrots" do not always complement one another.

6. Clinton tells Russia no Iran sanctions yet
AFP by Lachlan Carmichael and Stuart Williams
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Tuesday sought to present a united front with Russia on the Iranian nuclear crisis, saying there was not yet any hurry for new sanctions against Tehran.

7. US calls for Chinese support on Iran nuclear issue
AFP
The United States said Wednesday it needed China's support if progress is to be made in curbing Iran's nuclear programme, ahead of crucial talks on the issue this month.

SOUTH ASIA
8. India tests nuclear-capable missiles
UPI
In quick succession, India test-fired short-range ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads.

9. The most vulnerable naked nukes of India 
Daily Mail by Makhdoom Babar and Christina Palmer
While the western media and the western governments keep shouting about vulnerability of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal and keep expressing the fears that these are likely to fall in the hands of extremists like Taliban, they have kept their eyes wide shut regarding the state of affairs of the nuclear weapons and nuclear capable missiles of neighbouring India where the situation is highly alarming, reveal the findings of The Daily Mail’s investigations into the matter.

RUSSIA/FSU
10. Russia's new military doctrine allows pre-emptive nuclear strikes
RIA Novosti
Russia's new military doctrine does not rule out pre-emptive nuclear strikes against potential aggressors, the head of its Security Council said on Wednesday.

11. Russia Resists U.S. Position on Sanctions for Iran
NYT by Mark Landler and Clifford J. Levy
Denting President Obama’s hopes for a powerful ally in his campaign to press Iran on its nuclear program, Russia’s foreign minister said Tuesday that threatening Tehran now with harsh new sanctions would be “counterproductive.”

12. A Russian policy shift on Iran?
BBC by Kim Ghattas
Hillary Clinton came to Moscow for a day of intensive talks with Iran at the top of her agenda, hoping to build on a recent warming of relations with Russia under the Obama administration.

EUROPE

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

MISCELLANEOUS

OPINION
13. Changing North Korea
NYT by Andrei Lankov
When it comes to dealing with North Korea, the United States and its allies have no efficient methods of coercion at their disposal; the regime is remarkably immune to outside pressure. Its leaders cannot afford change, so they make sure their state continues to be an international threat, using nuclear blackmail as a survival tactic while their unlucky subjects endure more poverty and terror. Since outside pressure is ineffective, change will have to come from the North Koreans themselves. The United States and its allies can best help them by exposing them to the very attractive alternatives to their current way of life.

14. Opportunity to Lead: Japan's Critical Role in the Elimination of Nuclear Weapons
Hiroshima Peace Media Center by Joe Cirincione
Japan has a surprisingly large influence on U.S. nuclear policy. Japanese officials should make clear that they support a nuclear free world and reduced U.S reliance on nuclear weapons so U.S extended deterrence isn’t used as an excuse to prevent progress on the path toward disarmament.

15. A Dangerous Iran? Here's A Plan
CBS News by Jeffrey Herf
Our negotiations with Iran are not off to a good start. After the initial meeting Iranian representatives said they had agreed to send processed uranium to Russia. Then, a day later, one of the Iranian negotiators denied they had agreed to any such thing. This brings us to the one policy option that Tehran truly fears--and thus the only one that gives these negotiations any realistic chance of success: a credible threat of military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities by the United States, perhaps joined by Britain and France, or Israel.

16. A different regime change in Iran
Financial Times by Richard Haass
Military strikes will only delay Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, the U.S. should pursue other strategies such as sanctions, increased inspections, and possibly deterrence.

17. Can Iran afford a nuclear U-turn?
The Guardian by Meir Javedanfar
The Geneva meeting with Iran on 1 October produced results that exceeded the expectations of many. Despite achievements by both sides, significant challenges remain. It will be difficult for Iran’s leadership to give up their nuclear program after they’ve already solid it as a victory to the Iranian people.

18. Could an Israeli air strike stop Iran's nuclear program?
CSM by Dan Murphy
Israel has a military strike option, but it would, at best, slow the progress of Iran’s nuclear program.  Strikes would have a cost, and at the moment are unlikely.  However, that could change if Iran’s nuclear program continues unabated.

19. Nobel for Obama rules out U.S. strike on Iran
Haaretz by Reuven Pedatzur
In giving the Nobel Peace Prize to U.S. President Barack Obama, the members of the Nobel committee effectively closed the lid on the American military option in Iran. Israel should stop scaremongering and consider the benefits of nuclear disclosure.

20. Analysis: Russia uses ambiguity to boost its power
AP by Douglas Birch
As Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton began her first visit to Moscow as the top U.S. diplomat, the Kremlin sent a message to Washington: Russia must still be wooed and won. It's how post-Soviet Russia has managed to thrive as a world power, despite a shrinking population, a bloated and inefficient military, and an antiquated industrial base.