Nonproliferation News - October 16, 2009

FISSILE MATERIAL
Iranian go-slow dims deal chances at Vienna atom talks
Reuters by Mark Heinrich

U.S. Considers a New Assessment of Iran Threat
WSJ by Siobhan Gorman and Jay Solomon

Obama loosens missile technology controls to China
Washington Times by Bill Gertz

Beijing Is Violating North Korean Sanctions
WSJ by Gordon G. Chang

EAST ASIA
1. What's Gotten Into N. Korea?
WP by Blaine Harden
There have been hiccups, such as the five missiles it fired into the sea on Monday, but North Korea seems unusually focused this fall on smoothing feathers that it ruffled earlier in the year.

2. N. Korea seems to want nuke agreement like U.S.-India deal: former U.S. official 
Yonhap News by Tony Chang
North Korea seems to want recognition as a nuclear power, but may ultimately be willing to agree on a partial denuclearization deal like the one the U.S. offered India in 2005, a former U.S. National Security Council (NSC) official said Thursday.

3. China Aid Could Mar Efforts to Rid NKorea of Nukes
NYT by AP
China's recent offer of aid to North Korea could undermine U.N. sanctions against Pyongyang and help feed a cycle of failed negotiations aimed at ending the isolated country's nuclear program, a former U.S. negotiator said Thursday.

4. U.S. Hopes to Strengthen Ties With China's Expanding Military
WP by John Pomfret
During his first visit to China next month, President Obama hopes to strengthen ties with Beijing on efforts to combat climate change, address the global financial crisis and contain nuclear proliferation in North Korea and Iran. Perhaps most important, he also aims to improve the U.S. relationship with China's military.

5. EXCLUSIVE: Obama loosens missile technology controls to China
Washington Times by Bill Gertz
President Obama recently shifted authority for approving sales to China of missile and space technology from the White House to the Commerce Department -- a move critics say will loosen export controls and potentially benefit Chinese missile development.

MIDDLE EAST
6. Iranian go-slow dims deal chances at Vienna atom talks
Reuters by Mark Heinrich
World powers will seek to finalize an agreement with Iran on Monday on processing its uranium abroad to help allay Western fears it is developing nuclear weapons. But Iran has dampened Western expectations it is ready to seal the deal. "Time is on our side," a senior Iranian official said. Tehran would send junior officials rather than its nuclear energy chief to the meeting in Vienna, he told Reuters.

7. U.S. Considers a New Assessment of Iran Threat
WSJ by Siobhan Gorman and Jay Solomon
U.S. spy agencies are considering whether to rewrite a controversial 2007 intelligence report that asserted Tehran halted its efforts to build nuclear weapons in 2003, current and former U.S. intelligence officials say.

8. Quick accord sought on Iran's uranium export
AP
World powers want Iran to agree quickly to the export of low-enriched uranium to Russia for further enrichment as it would reduce the risk of the material going for nuclear weapons, France's Foreign Ministry said Thursday.

9. Diplomats Set to Resume Nuclear Talks With Iran 
VOA News by Meredith Buel
Diplomats from the United States, France, Russia and the United Nations are scheduled to meet with Iranian officials next Monday, October 19, in Vienna to resume discussions about the country's nuclear program.  But some Middle East analysts are looking at possible options should the talks fail, including the possibility of severe sanctions or even military action.

10. Q+A - What Iran wants from nuclear talks
Reuters
The U.N. nuclear watchdog will host a meeting on Monday in Vienna between Iran, the United States, Russia and France to discuss details of sending Iran's low enriched uranium abroad for further processing and return to Tehran. Following are some questions about Iran's possible intentions.

11. US Congress oks sanctions on Iran's fuel suppliers
Reuters by Tom Doggett
The U.S. Senate on Thursday approved legislation to punish foreign oil companies that export gasoline to Iran, marking the first time both chambers of Congress have cleared the same bill imposing economic sanctions on Iran to protest its nuclear program.

12. China's links to Iran a snag for sanctions
LA Times by David Pierson
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said Thursday that his nation was committed to deepening its ties with Iran, a declaration that underscores the difficulty the United States will face in seeking broad economic sanctions against Tehran in an effort to rein in its nuclear program.

SOUTH ASIA
13. Precursor to PM's US visit: India notifies separation plan in IAEA
Times of India by Indrani Bagchi
In the run-up to PM Manmohan Singh's first state visit to Washington in the Obama administration, India has notified its separation plan in the IAEA, which formally separates India's civilian and military nuclear establishments. The plan, which was announced in March 2006, has passed muster at IAEA and India's safeguards agreement is now officially operational.

14. Pakistan's nuclear arsenal safe, security experts say
Globe and Mail by Paul Koring
Taliban jihadists storming Pakistani police stations and army headquarters have revived fears of Islamic extremists hijacking a nuclear warhead. But that particular threat may mostly be the stuff of movie thrillers.

RUSSIA/FSU
15. Next nuclear worry for US: Kazakhstan?
CSM by Peter Grier
Does Kazakhstan want to increase its nuclear commerce – doing deals with other nations that have mixed records when it comes to weapons proliferation? That is a sensitive issue which US intelligence appears to be following closely.

16. Russia upset at U.S.-Ukraine missile defense talks
Reuters by Conor Sweeney
Russia said on Thursday it was worried about U.S. talks on the use of Ukrainian radar stations as part of a revised missile defense shield, a step that could hinder efforts to reset ties between the two Cold War foes.

EUROPE

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS

MISCELLANEOUS

OPINION
17. A Hitch in Iran's Nuclear Plans?
WP by David Ignatius
Iran's supply of low-enriched uranium appears to have certain "impurities" that "could cause centrifuges to fail" if the Iranians try to boost it to weapons grade. Iran may have had no alternative but to seek foreign help in enrichment because its own centrifuges wouldn't work. If the Nucleonics Week report is accurate (and there's some uncertainty among experts about how serious the contamination problem is), the Iranian nuclear program is in much worse shape than most analysts had realized.

18. Beijing Is Violating North Korean Sanctions
WSJ by Gordon G. Chang
Kim Jong Il hugged Wen Jiabao on the Chinese premier's arrival in Pyongyang on October 4. Analysts were surprised at the time that the reclusive North Korean supremo made the trip to the tarmac to show his affection. Now we know why: Mr. Wen came to the North Korean capital less to mark 60 years of diplomatic ties with the Democratic People's Republic of Korea—the ostensible purpose of the trip—than to sign commercial pacts with it. By doing so, China undoubtedly violated United Nations Security Resolution 1874 by giving Kim the means to keep his nuclear arsenal in the face of intense international pressure.

19. Pyongyang duck
LA Times by Paul B. Stares
North Korea, under Kim Jong Il, is unlikely at accept any agreement to end its nuclear program, but there are still benefits of pursing six-party talks.

20. The Obama retreat continues: The President's latest breathtaking capitulation is to Russia
NY Daily News by Charles Krauthammer
Obama’s concession on missile defense isn’t getting Russian cooperation on sanctions.  Instead, Obama is giving into Russia even more by agreeing for engagement, instead of pressure, with Iran.