Nonproliferation News - September 30, 2009

FISSILE MATERIAL
N. Korea Rejects 'Grand Bargain' Nuke Offer
Korea Times

Iran assembly could advise quitting NPT if talks fail
Reuters

Oil, Ideology Keep China From Joining Push Against Iran
Washington Post by John Pomfret

Forget the Nukes
Washington Post by Robert Kagan

EAST ASIA
1. N. Korea Rejects 'Grand Bargain' Nuke Offer
Korea Times
North Korea rejected President Lee Myung-bak's proposal to seek a "grand bargain" on its nuclear program, Wednesday, saying Seoul should discard confrontational policies first to talk about denuclearization.

2. North says nuclear negotiation ball in U.S. court
JoongAng Daily
North Korea has thrown the ball into the United States’ court in the ongoing nuclear standoff, saying the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula depends on Washington’s willingness to change its “hostile” nuclear stance.

3. U.S. Offers North Korea Direct Talks on Ending Nuclear Program
Bloomberg by Bomi Lim
A top U.S. diplomat said the Obama administration is willing to engage North Korea directly to restart stalled nuclear disarmament talks, while the communist state warned South Korea not to interfere.

4. Pres. Lee: US Backs `Grand Bargain` for NK Nukes
Dong-a Ilbo
President Lee Myung-bak said yesterday that the U.S. agrees with his “grand bargain” proposal to end North Korea’s nuclear program.

MIDDLE EAST
5. Iran Defends ‘Rights’ to Run Its Newly Declared Plant
NYT by Alan Cowell and Nazila Fathi
One day after it said it test-fired missiles capable of striking targets 1,250 miles from its soil, Iran said Tuesday that it would soon offer a timetable for international inspectors to visit a hitherto secret nuclear enrichment facility, but that it was not prepared to renounce its nuclear program or debate its “rights” to operate the previously undeclared plant.

6. Iran Is Seeking a ‘Two-Way Street’ at Talks
NYT by Neil MacFarquhar
The Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, said Tuesday that talks between Iran and six major powers, which are to take place on Thursday, must be a “two-way street” and not just a long list of demands focused on his country’s nuclear program.

7. Iran assembly could advise quitting NPT if talks fail
Reuters
A hardline Iranian MP said on Tuesday that parliament may advocate Iran's withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty if talks with big powers fail and the United States keeps pressure on Tehran.

8. US: No `snap judgment' this week on Iran nukes
AP by Robert Burns
The Obama administration, while skeptical of an early breakthrough in nuclear talks with Iran, indicated Tuesday it does not intend to swiftly press for stiffer economic sanctions.

9. West goes to Iran talks _ and readies sanctions
AP by George Jahn
Even as they prepare for new talks Thursday with Iran on its nuclear program, the U.S. and its allies are contemplating new and tighter sanctions on Tehran, in a clear signal of expectations that the negotiations may again end in failure.

10. U.S. Aims To Isolate Iran if Talks Fail
Washington Post by Glenn Kessler
The Obama administration is laying plans to cut Iran's economic links to the rest of the world if talks this week over the country's nuclear ambitions founder, according to officials and outside experts familiar with the plans.

11. FACTBOX: U.S. weighs sanctions options for Iran
Reuters
The Obama administration has consulted outside experts as it weighs possible sanctions on Iran that could target its gasoline imports and insurers that underwrite the trade, among other options. Here are some of the options the United States and its allies could consider if the negotiations fail to resolve the standoff over Iran's nuclear program.

12. Oil, Ideology Keep China From Joining Push Against Iran
Washington Post by John Pomfret
In its effort to muster support for sterner action against Iran, the Obama administration will have to overcome China's reluctance to punish a country that is one of its top oil suppliers and a major beneficiary of its energy-related investments.

13. China’s Ties With Iran Complicate Diplomacy
NYT by Michael Wines
Leaders of the House Foreign Affairs Committee swept into Beijing last month to meet with Chinese officials, carrying a plea from Washington: if Iran were to be kept from developing nuclear weapons, China would have to throw more diplomatic weight behind the cause.

14. IAEA to Seek Evidence of Iranian Nuclear Sites
WSJ
Iran struck a defiant tone Tuesday, ruling out discussion of a recently disclosed uranium-enrichment site at talks with U.N. Security Council members this week, as United Nations officials said they will try to determine whether Iran has other such facilities when they visit the site in the next few weeks.

15. Iran built nuclear site shielded from air attack
AP by Ali Akbar Dareini and George Jahn
In an unusually frank disclosure, Iran's nuclear chief said Tuesday the country's new uranium enrichment site was built for maximum protection from aerial attack: carved into a mountain and near a military compound of the powerful Revolutionary Guard.

16. In Dispute With Iran, Path to Iraq Is in Spotlight
NYT by Scott Shane
To many Americans, Secretary of State Colin L. Powell’s February 2003 speech to the United Nations on Iraq’s unconventional weapons was powerfully persuasive. It was a dazzling performance, featuring satellite images and intercepts of Iraqi communications, delivered by one of the most trusted figures in public life.

SOUTH ASIA
17. Scientist reveals India nuke test fizzled
Global Post by Jason Overdorf
Days before President Barack Obama told the United Nations that he hoped to push through a universal treaty to ban all nuclear weapons testing by the end of 2010, a top Indian scientist threw New Delhi's security establishment for an atomic loop.

18. India expands nuclear ambitions
BBC News
A major increase in nuclear power generation over the next 40 years will help India reduce its impact on global warming, Indian PM Manmohan Singh says.

RUSSIA/FSU
19. Moscow considers joint missile shield with NATO
Russia Times
Moscow is against NATO's anti-missile system becoming part of the US shield, but will consider the idea of Russia and NATO forming a “missile umbrella”, according to Russia’s NATO envoy Dmitry Rogozin.

20. Russia Concerned Over Revised U.S. Missile Defense Plan
Fox News by AP
Russia's envoy to NATO is calling for guarantees from Washington that a revised U.S. missile defense plan won't threaten Moscow.

EUROPE

INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS
21. IAEA: Iran broke law by not revealing nuclear facility
CNN
The head of the United Nations' nuclear watchdog agency said Iran broke the law by not disclosing sooner its recently revealed uranium enrichment site.

22. India's voice should be heard: IAEA chief
Times of India
Even as he insisted on preparing the ground for a global security system which was not dependent on nuclear weapons, IAEA chief
Mohamed El-Baradei on Tuesday complimented India for the role it has played in trying to ensure nuclear disarmament.

MISCELLANEOUS

OPINION
23. Forget the Nukes
Washington Post by Robert Kagan
The past two weeks have been a big success for the rulers in Tehran, despite what many in the United States and Europe may think. The Obama administration, the Europeans and the media have been obsessively focused on Iranian missile launches and secret enrichment facilities, on Russia's body language, and on the likely success or failure of Thursday's talks in Geneva. What the world has not focused on is the one thing Iran's rulers care about: their own survival.

24. What Else Is Iran Hiding?
Foreign Policy by Nima Gerami and James M. Acton
Unfortunately, the Qom facility might not be the end of the story. A centrifuge plant needs feedstock, uranium hexafluoride -- a material derived from refined uranium ore and produced at a conversion plant. Iran would probably not risk trying to divert feedstock from its declared conversion plant at Esfahan, which is under the watchful eye of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Iran could therefore have also set up a clandestine conversion facility, or have succeeded in procuring the material illicitly.

25. Lifting Iran’s Nuclear Veil
NYT by Gary Milhollin and Valerie Lincy
THE disclosure of Iran’s secret nuclear plant has changed the way the West must negotiate with Tehran. While worrisome enough on its own, the plant at Qum may well be the first peek at something far worse: a planned, or even partly completed, hidden nuclear archipelago stretching across the country.

26. We've Been Talking to Iran for 30 Years
WSJ by Michael Ledeen
The Obama administration's talks with Iran—set to take place tomorrow in Geneva—are accompanied by an almost universally accepted misconception: that previous American administrations refused to negotiate with Iranian leaders. The truth, as Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said last October at the National Defense University, is that "every administration since 1979 has reached out to the Iranians in one way or another and all have failed."

27. Iran Has No Right to Nuclear Technology
WSJ by Matthias Kuntzel
The international community has treated the recent disclosure of another secret uranium enrichment facility in Iran the way it has treated Tehran's previous violations of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—with calls for yet more "dialogue." The continued pursuit of fruitless diplomacy is based on an incorrect understanding of international law, one that was spearheaded by the Europeans and is now unfortunately shared by the U.S. president.

28. FACTBOX: What Iran experts are saying about sanctions
Reuters
Reuters spoke to analysts at U.S. think-tanks and industry sources to canvass their views on the effectiveness of any sanctions that Washington and its allies may consider imposing on Iran.

29. Over a Barrel: Why Iran Sanctions Won't Work
CBS News by Pamela Falk
Going into Thursday's high-stakes negotiations with Iran, President Obama will soon see for himself the corner into which the Islamic Republic has thrust his predecessors. The country's vast oil reserves will undermine Obama administration efforts to increase U.N. sanctions, and Iran knows it.

30. Who’s afraid of the NPT?
Indian Express by Arundhati Ghose
India remains unimpressed with the UN resolution pushing for disarmament. The resolution, clearly meant to shore up the faltering NPT in advance of the 2010 Review Conference in May, has been stoutly rejected.  The objection to the discriminatory nature of the NPT is not just rhetoric; it is a belief that this has and would continue to encourage “breakouts”. As far as India is concerned, there is a twist in the tale: while no one in India would favour India signing the NPT, it does not appear that there is a national consensus on the government’s stand on nuclear disarmament.

31. Outside View: A nuclear-armed Taliban?
UPI by Col. Lawrence Sellin
A nuclear-armed Taliban? It may not be as far-fetched as it might first appear.