Nuclear Policy News - January 8, 2010

FISSILE MATERIAL
US-Russia nuke deal in weeks, maybe months: experts
AFP

U.S., British Might Share Firing Device to Update Nuclear Arms
GSN by Elaine M. Grossman

International nuclear bank in Kazakhstan
BBC by Humphrey Hawksley

Iran strike could destabilize Middle East: Pentagon
Reuters by Phil Stewart

EAST ASIA
1. North Korea's reclusive Kim Jong Il may be planning China trip
LA Times by John M. Glionna
He rarely leaves his secure confines in Pyongyang, but Asian news reports cite signs that reclusive North Korean strongman Kim Jong Il is preparing for a trip to Beijing.

2. Visit by Kim to China Could Bode Well for Nuclear Talks
GSN
A rumored trip to China by North Korean leader Kim Jong Il could bode well for the long-stalled negotiations aimed at shuttering his nation's nuclear program, the Los Angeles Times reported yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 6).

3. Seoul not considering S Korea-Japan joint declaration on security: media
Xinhua
South Korea is not considering a joint declaration on security cooperation with Japan, following media reports in Japan that the two countries are mulling over a summit-level declaration, a government official told local media Friday.

MIDDLE EAST
4. Iran may want to be close to weapon capacity
Russia Today
Secrecy that Iran has about its enrichment process has raised suspicions that it may want to be close to creating nuclear weapons, believes Hans Blix, former UN weapons inspector.

5. Iran strike could destabilize Middle East: Pentagon
Reuters by Phil Stewart
A strike on Iran could be "very, very destabilizing" and have unintended consequences for the Middle East, the top U.S. military officer said on Thursday, stressing that diplomacy was crucial.

6. Taiwan Firm: China Got Iran Part With Nuke Uses
NYT by AP
A Taiwanese company agreed to a request from a firm in China to procure sensitive components with nuclear uses, then shipped them to Iran, the firm's head said Friday. Such transactions violate U.N. sanctions imposed on the Middle Eastern nation.

SOUTH ASIA
7. Thorium reactors more secure: Kakodkar
The Hindu by P. Sunderarajan
The former Atomic Energy Commission Chairman, Anil Kakodkar, on Thursday said he planned to associate himself with the Mumbai-based Bhabha Atomic Research Centre and focus on issues of use of thorium for generating nuclear power.

RUSSIA/FSU/EUROPE
8. US-Russia nuke deal in weeks, maybe months: experts
AFP
The United States and Russia may have found negotiations for a broad new nuclear disarmament deal tougher than expected, but are still likely to seal one soon in the New Year, analysts said Wednesday.

MULTILATERAL ARMS CONTROL AND NONPROLIFERATION
9. International nuclear bank in Kazakhstan
BBC by Humphrey Hawksley
The IAEA is making progress on a fuel bank that aims to convince some 60 developing countries planning to use nuclear power in the near future that they do not need to go down Iran's path of enriching their own uranium.

10. START Talks Seen Casting Shadow on NPT Review Conference
GSN
After missing two self-imposed deadlines for completing a successor to a Cold War-era arms control pact, the United States and Russia must consider how drawn-out negotiations could affect a May conference aimed at updating the world's nuclear nonproliferation framework, experts told Agence France-Presse yesterday (see GSN, Jan. 4).

U.S. NUCLEAR WEAPONS STRATEGY AND POLICY
11. The Nuclear Posture Review, now and later
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists by Joshua Pollack
The long-awaited report of the third Nuclear Posture Review is now scheduled for delivery to Congress on March 1. According to a recent New York Times article, the posture review will consider the prevention of nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism to be equally as important as the nuclear deterrence mission. It remains to be seen how this combination will be accomplished, but these choices will form the substance of what could be a refreshing departure from tradition.

12. Nuclear Proliferation Threatens Obama Policy
Aviation Week by Bill Sweetman
The coming year will see nuclear weapons higher on the political agenda than they have been in years, as President Barack Obama’s ambition to move toward a nuclear-free future collides with the desire of other nations to join the nuclear club or keep their memberships current.

13. U.S., British Might Share Firing Device to Update Nuclear Arms
GSN by Elaine M. Grossman
The Obama administration is taking initial steps to develop a "common fuse" aimed at replacing aging firing devices in two different U.S. nuclear weapons, and could partner with the United Kingdom in developing the technology (see GSN, May 14, 2009).

OPINIONS
14. Time for tougher sanctions
Economist
THE six countries trying to talk Iran out of its dangerous nuclear ambitions—America, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China—face an unappetising choice. Iran continues to produce stocks of enriched uranium that it claims are intended for a civilian nuclear programme (although it has no nuclear-powered reactor that could use the stuff), but which could make a bomb.

15. The gathering storm
Economist
The Osiraq raid, condemned at the time, is often seen these days as the model for “preventive” military action against nuclear threats. By Israel’s reckoning, Iran will have the know-how to make nuclear weapons within months and, thereafter, could build atomic bombs within a year. Even if Iran does not seek to realise its dreams of wiping out the Jewish state, Israeli officials say a nuclear-armed Iran would lead to “cataclysmic” changes in the Middle East.

16. The wrong approach to Iran
Guardian by Saeed Kamali Dehghan
The Conservative MP Brian Binley is wrong about Iran. In his article for Cif yesterday, he uses the British government's handling of the Peter Moore case as proof of its appeasement policy towards the Iranian regime. The Foreign Office can be reproached for denying Iran's involvement in Moore's kidnapping, but this doesn't mean that it has a softly-softly approach to Tehran in general, nor that Britain has "a blinkered view" of Iran's negative role in the Middle East.

17. The proliferation of nuclear panic is politics at its most ghoulish
Guardian by Simon Jenkins
Some books are written to be read, others to be put in a cannon and blasted at the seat of power. Two such blasts have just crossed my desk, from academics on either side of the Atlantic. Both are on the same subject, the consequence of the irrational fear of radiation.