Nuclear Policy News - February 1, 2012

Mark P. Barry

 

 

U.S. intelligence expects North Korea's new young leader Kim Jong Un to continue Pyongyang's policy of attempting to export its weapon systems.

 

A senior American diplomat said on Wednesday that Washington was “open to diplomacy” with the new leadership emerging in North Korea following the death of Kim Jong-il but wanted Pyongyang to improve ties with South Korea first.

 

A delegation of senior South Korean officials will visit the United States to discuss details of the U.S.-led sanctions against Iran, including how much Seoul will reduce its crude imports from Tehran, officials said Wednesday.

 

 

 

Iran said Tuesday that a team of United Nations nuclear inspectors visiting since the weekend had concluded “constructive and positive” talks with Iranian officials, with further discussions planned at an unspecified date.

 

 

IRAN'S nuclear program has become the focus of high-level discussions between the intelligence agencies of the US and Israel.

 

 

Senior U.N. nuclear inspectors plan another trip to Iran soon after holding what both sides described as "good" talks about suspicions that the Islamic Republic is seeking the means to develop atomic weapons.

 

Washington openly blames Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei for first time over Saudi ambassador plot.

 

 

 

The United States wants its relations with Pakistan to remain positive, but their interests sometimes differed as Pakistan considered India as an existential threat, according to Washington's intelligence chief.

 

 

 

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will discuss bilateral cooperation in high-tech industries, including space and nuclear power, during his one-day working visit to Australia on Tuesday.

 

 

 

The Netherlands has accepted Seoul's request to host the 3rd Nuclear Security Summit in 2014.

 

 

A senior U.N. nuclear expert on Wednesday announced plans to revisit Tehran soon after a "good trip," indicating progress on his team's quest to probe suspicions that the Islamic Republic is secretly working on an atomic arms program.

 

 

 

Some senior Iranian leaders are now more willing to carry out attacks inside the United States in response to perceived American threats against their country, the Obama administration’s top intelligence official said on Tuesday, pointing to last fall’s suspected assassination plot against the Saudi ambassador to Washington.

 

 

Mark P. Barry

 

North Korea has a new leader, appears stable after a smooth succession, and shows signs that it’s willing to engage with the United States. The Obama administration, however, has remained silent in the face of these recent positive developments, jeopardizing this historic chance to end the tensions on the Korean peninsula and promote a peaceful détente.

Daryl G. Kimball

 

The United States’ intelligence community’s judgments on Iran’s nuclear program have not fundamentally changed from those revealed in its controversial 2007 National Intelligence Estimate. In presenting the intelligence community’s annual “Worldwide Threat Assessment” to the Senate Committee on Intelligence on January 31, Director of National Intelligence James R. Clapper used language identical to that used in recent years on a number of critical points:

Leslie H. Gelb

 

The United States, Israel, and Europe are inching closer to war with Iran because of what they're doing and what they're not doing. What they are doing is squeezing Iran with unprecedented economic sanctions (which is good); but Western leaders know full well the penalties won't cause Tehran to abandon its nuclear program. What the West is doing is drawing "red lines" that are backing its leaders into untenable and dangerous corners, as well as cornering Iran. What they are not doing is leveraging these economic and military pressures with a negotiating proposal that can curtail Iran's nuclear-bomb-making capabilities without war.

 

Jeffrey Lewis

 

Did you know there is a Scud missile in the lobby of the Defense Intelligence Analysis Center.  A colleague sent along this little video, noting that if you look closely, there it is at 0:13! (Apparently, they also use it as a rally point as in “meet by the Scud”.)

Michael Levi

 

If analysts and reporters know one thing about sanctions, it’s that if you don’t have complete international cooperation, they don’t work. That instinct has been on full display in recent discussions of oil market sanctions targeted at the Iranian nuclear program. Yes, the United States and Europe might refrain from buying Iranian oil, but so long as China and India are willing to buy the surplus crude, won’t the sanctions be toothless?