Nuclear Posture Review Delayed, Again

By John K. Warden

The Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), originally scheduled to be released with the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) and FY11 Budget on February 1, has been further delayed.

Now, the NPR is expected in early March, but a week or two after the previously announced March 1 deadline.

Josh Rogin noted the delay a couple days ago, citing a speech by Ellen Tauscher:

Under Secretary of State for Arms Control Ellen Tauscher said in a speech Wednesday that the NPR is expected to come out in early March, a little later than the March 1 deadline previously announced and much later than the original Dec. 1 deadline.

Whether a "little later" means later in the first week of March or into the second or third week is unclear.

Laura Rozen explained where the process was at earlier this week:

There is a Principals Committee meeting at the White House today on the Nuclear Posture Review. National Security Adviser Jim Jones, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, and Defense Secretary Robert Gates are due to attend. POTUS won't be involved in today's meeting, one nonproliferation hand says. That is still a week away.
Today's meeting is to figure out what options will be presented to the president for his final review, expected to be released the first week of March.

If the content of the report is still being determined by Obama during the last week of February, it's hard to imagine that the final document will be ready by Monday of the following week (March 1).

I wrote last month that the original delay in the NPR (from February 1 to March 1) was probably caused by negotiations over difficult compromises required to satisfy the parties involved:

Of the many explanations for the delay in the NPR, the one that makes the most sense is that there are difficult political compromises that have to be made to satisfy all the people involved.  The final document will likely include some ambitious language.  While no-first-use seems like a non-starter, there could be a declaration that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to deter nuclear use.  The document could also call for additional cuts in strategic warheads beyond the new START range.  At the same time, the NPR will reiterate the importance of nuclear weapons in assuring allies and commit to investments to maintain a safe, secure, and effective deterrent.
Without a clear consensus among the parties involved, finding an acceptable compromise is taking longer than expected.  Like the final health care bill, the final version of the NPR will contain language that no one is happy with, but everyone can live with.

That explanation could explain this delay as well.  However, it's also possible that the NPR was a victim of Snowmageddon.  After all, the government, and all of Washington, D.C., was closed for almost a week, which could have easily delayed the process of finalizing the report.

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In related news, PONI had planned on hosting a panel on March 2 to discuss the contents of the NPR, but will adjust the date depending on when the NPR is released.