NYTimes Opinion | Room for Debate: Pakistan’s Nuclear Scenarios, U.S. Solutions

(Credit: Inter Services Public Relations/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images) Pakistani officials, including senior military leaders, in front of a long range nuclear-capable ballistic missile. Other Threats: A Coup or Chaos Karin von Hippel is co-director of the Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. A Taliban and Al Qaeda takeover of Pakistan, along with its nuclear arsenal, pose the worst-case scenario for Western policymakers and far too many Pakistanis. But two other, less extreme scenarios also cause serious concern. The first would be yet another military coup, potentially led by junior officers with sympathy for the Islamist militants. Many of these junior officers are largely unknown to their counterparts in the West, unlike the senior military officers. This lack of familiarity is the result of U.S. sanctions placed on Pakistan between the end of the Cold War and Sept. 11, 2001, moves that were intended to punish the country for its nuclear program and, later, for a military coup. The second nightmare scenario would be continued state disintegration, resulting in competing militias, terrorist groups and criminal gangs in charge of most of Pakistan’s provinces and territories, with the government exercising only nominal control over parts of the capital city and — maybe — some of the nuclear weapons. Any of these scenarios will have enormous consequences for the South Asia region, home to nearly half the world’s population. Any of these formulations will have direct and enormous consequences not only for the people and governments in the greater South Asia region — home to nearly half the world’s population and several nuclear-armed states — but also further afield in Europe and North America. In contrast, the best case scenario would be a full embrace by the Pakistani security forces of counter-insurgency doctrine –- notably protection of the civilian population, improved delivery of social services and successful application of the rule of law –- along with much-needed political and economic reforms throughout the country. What should the United States and its allies do to help move the country in the right direction? While the top levels of the U.S. government –- in both the military and civilian spheres –- are already working very closely with their counterparts in Pakistan and in the region, greater efforts also need to be made to align the Pakistani people with their own government and these external efforts. In Pakistan (and to a degree in Afghanistan), too many citizens still think they are being asked to fight America’s war, and are not fully convinced that they are facing an internal security threat from the Taliban, Al Qaeda, narco-criminals, warlords or other militia groups. Many also view their own government as corrupt and incapable of providing even basic justice. To enhance diplomatic, development and military efforts, the U.S. government should support an extensive countrywide campaign that personalizes the victims and the heroes, telling the stories of those who were butchered by the Taliban and those who successfully resisted. This should be paired with extensive support for the very robust civil society organizations operating throughout the country.