Obama's Qom Announcement...Why the Slow Play?

On Friday morning, President Obama announced the existence of a previously undisclosed Iranian enrichment facility near Qom.  Obama's announcement has altered the debate over Iran's nuclear program and might create momentum for a new round of sanctions.  However, the question people have been asking is:  why the slow play?  If Obama has known about the facility since before he took office, why did he wait until now to make the information public?

Part of the answer is readily apparent.  Iran sent a letter to the IAEA last Monday disclosing a "pilot facility" near Qom, forcing Obama's hand.  According to Laura Rozen in Politico, Iran's letter was the primary trigger:

Interviews with administration and international officials, diplomats, non-proliferation and Iran experts suggest the administration had no plans to announce its suspicions before beginning international talks with Iran next week. But its hand was forced after learning some time during the week of a letter Iran had sent the [IAEA]… “Iran’s letter was the trigger” for Obama’s announcement, a U.S. official told POLITICO on condition of anonymity

Iran's disclosure made it appear as if the facility was an extension of a peaceful nuclear energy program that was in compliance with the IAEA.  The administration knew it had to change that perception.  According to Helene Cooper and Mark Mazzetti in the NYT:

The White House essentially decided to outflank the Iranians, to present to their allies and the public what they believed was powerful evidence that there was more to the Iranian site than just some pilot program.

Some have speculated that the official U.S. story might not be true.  These people argue that while the administration had some knowledge of the facility, it wasn't confident in the intel.  After the faulty intel that lead to the Iraq War, it's possible the Obama administration was hesitant to press for action against Iran based on incomplete intelligence.  Furthermore, the administration certainly has an incentive to make Iran and the international community think American intelligence is stronger than it actually is (after Iran confirmed the facility existed in its letter to the IAEA).  If the U.S. can convince Iran that its intelligence community will find any secret facility, it might deter Iran from trying to develop yet another clandestine facility.

However, Spencer Ackerman at the Washington Independent explored this possibility and asked an intelligence official if Iran's disclosure confirmed U.S. suspicions.  He concluded this wasn't the case:

Not so, says a U.S. intelligence official who would only speak on background. “This was a major intelligence success,” the official said, but would not elaborate — yet.

Also, in the extensive coverage since Obama's announcement on Friday morning, there has been little discussion of this possibility and no indication from administration or intelligence officials that Iran's disclosure confirmed uncertain U.S. intelligence.

Other evidence also indicates that Obama knew about the facility before Iran's disclosure last week.  According to Laura Rozen's Politico blog, the way Obama described the Iranian threat over the last months shows that the administration knew about the facility for some time:

"The mantra of the Obama team for months has been that the fissile material for [an Iranian] bomb was more likely to come from a covert faciilty" than an overt enrichment facility such as that at Natanz, the Washington Instiute for Near East Policy's Patrick Clawson told POLITICO.
"Now, we discover that the Obama administration has known for months that Iran was building a facility covertly," Clawson continued. "By revealing this facility, and a clear record of what it is, it shows the Iranians that they will never be able to proceed with their program to fruition. It will be discovered, we will find out about it, and they will get screwed."

This is consistent with news reports that Obama knew about the facility before he took office, had been sharing the intelligence with allies like France, Britain, and Israel, and was waiting for the correct time to release the information.  But the question remains:  why did he hold back?  Wouldn't his newsflash have been useful over the last couple months in persuading Russia and China to support an additional round of sanctions?  Why not make an announcement while speaking to the U.N. on disarmament issues?

There are a few reasons why the Obama administration might have decided to withhold the intel.

First, Obama and his advisors may prefer the devil they know to the devil they don't.  The U.S. could have calculated that if Iran thought the Qom facility remained secret, it would continue to develop that facility instead of creating another clandestine facility (or many more).  As a result, the U.S. would be able to closely monitor Iran's progress and take appropriate action before Iran developed the capability to produce nuclear weapons.  From the U.S. perspective, the greatest risk is that Iran creates a facility that can create nuclear weapons material without our knowledge.

A second explanation could be that the administration was waiting until Iran began enrichment at the facility.  While Iran has already moved equipment into the Qom facility, it is not online yet.  According to Andreas Presbo and James Acton, Iran's disclosure of the facility after it began construction is a violation of Code 3.1 of the IAEA Subsidiary Arrangement.  However, Iran is arguing that its disclosure is in compliance with IAEA requirements:

Soon after Obama's G-20 speech, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization declared the new "semi-industrial enrichment fuel facility" was "within the framework of International Atomic Energy Agency's regulations"…Ahmadinejad told the press that the plant in question wouldn't be operational for 18 more months and that it did not violate the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)…The Iranian leader also said that Iran informed the IAEA about the plant only a few days ago instead of when ground was broken because construction had reached the stage where it should be reported, not because it found out that a US spy agency was watching.

Whether or not Iran's current actions are in violation of IAEA requirements (and I think they are), if Iran had began enriching uranium at Qom before disclosing the facility to the IAEA it would have been an even clearer violation of international obligations.

A third argument for waiting is that the Qom facility could function as a trump card in negotiations.  The administration could have been waiting for the perfect time to disclose the information to maximize their leverage in negotiations with Iran.  This is the argument that has appeared most prominently in newspaper and blog coverage of the announcement.  The LA Times argued that Obama was planning on going public with the information at the end of September all along.  And, both Marc Lynch (Foreign Policy) and Paul Taylor (Reuters) said Obama's decision to release the information just before negotiations with Iran was part of a calculated effort to ratchet up pressure.

While there may be some truth to this, I think some people might be overstating the planned nature of the announcement.  It's far from clear that Obama was planning on playing this trump card before the upcoming negotiations.  As we said above, administration officials have acknowledged that the Iranian letter to the IAEA was the trigger for Obama's announcement on Friday.  And, according to the NYT, just before Iran released the letter, the administration had still not decided whether to go public with the Qom intelligence:

As late as last weekend, American officials were still uncertain about when to publicly present the intelligence about the secret enrichment facility. The game plan changed Tuesday, when officials from the nuclear watchdog agency informed the Americans that Iran had sent the letter describing the “pilot” facility.

The final question is: why didn't Obama make the announcement at the U.N.?  On Thursday, the administration already knew about Iran's letter to the IAEA and Obama was speaking at the U.N. about disarmament and nonproliferation.  Why not bring up Qom there and turn opinion at the U.N. against Iran?  Again according to the NYT, Obama held off on making the announcement during the U.N. meeting because he didn't want to distract attention from the nonproliferation resolution he was pushing:

European officials urged speed, saying that Mr. Obama should accuse Iran of developing the secret facility first thing Thursday morning, when he presided over the Security Council for the very first time. It would have been a stirring and confrontational moment. But White House officials countered that it was too soon; they would not have time to brief allies and the nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and Mr. Obama did not want to dilute the nuclear nonproliferation resolution he was pushing through the Security Council by diverting to Iran.

Getting back to the original question; it is likely that Obama slow played the release of the Qom intelligence as part of a strategy to successfully maintain surveillance of and conclude successful negotiations with Iran.  However, after the administration got word of Iran's letter to the IAEA, it acted to increase U.S. leverage as much as possible.