The Korean press picked up on a talk Newt Gingrich gave at Heritage yesterday on national security. The article was brief but had some interesting spin. Gingrich discussed the common subject of China’s importance to solving North Korea. Recently the strategy to cajole China into further action beyond their usual ambivalence (which seems to be slowly melting away) contains the following two components:-Reassure the Chinese on questions about collapse of the Korean Peninsula- While China does benefit from a messy but not too messy situation on the Korean Peninsula one of their primary worries is the destabilizing consequences and the flow of refugees that would result from a regime collapse. As such, there are ideas being floated around about ways to assure the Chinese about U.S. intentions and assistance in the event of the collapse (a possibility they refuse to publicly acknowledge)-Show the downside of letting North Korean provocations to continue- this strategy revolves largely around emphasizing measures that might be taken by other countries in the region, primarily Japan, that would also pose security risks for China. This strategy is worthwhile to pursue if possible but it is important to keep in mind two points when figuring out how to frame the discussion:First, the United States is walking on a diplomatic tightrope and needs to avoid coming off as overly condescending. It will be tough to avoid people interpreting or claiming what the United States says is “let us tell you how the security situation operates in East Asia because we understand it better”Second, the United States need to be mindful of the Japanese perception to U.S. attempts to play a bizarre form of nuclear chicken with the Chinese. For example, the Korean press explained Gingrich’s comments as:
Gingrich said if the North continues its brinkmanship, China will have to choose between a nuclear-free North Korea and a nuclear-armed Japan in the not-too-distant future. He said Tokyo will increase its military capabilities to respond to threat from North Korea and that the U.S. will give whatever support it can. The time is approaching for China to determine if Japan’s establishment of a more elaborate missile defense system is really in China’s interest, he said.
This sends the message to the Japanese government and public: 1. if there is not a relatively quick complete disarmament of North Korea (unlikely at best) Japan will need to have nukes and 2. the U.S. will give Japan military capabilities (also a dangerous precedent given how bad they want the F22 in the wake of yesterday’s vote)Subtly reminding China that they don’t want another major power going nuclear can be valuable but it is important that the U.S. strategy doesn’t just further embolden conservative elements within Japan who are increasingly concerned about the U.S. extended deterrent to opt for the nuclear option.