Pakistan’s War? | Commentary by Pervez Khan

 Most of us think and rightly so, that it is our [Pakistan’s] war and that we will have to be ready to fight a series of battles to turn the ultimate outcome in our favor.

Flikr photo by dude crush used under a Creative Commons license.   We are also acutely aware of the fact that we will have to plan it, fight it and win it ourselves and there can be no alternative to this.  Our allies can help us in so many ways but it will have to remain our war in our country.  Each of the partner allies will have to plan and fight the anti terror war in their own way in their areas while ensuring that the efforts are coordinated and synchronized to beat the common enemy. The presence of the Soviet Union (1979-90) and that of USA and its allies (2001-09) in Afghanistan after 9/11 carries no difference; they are perceived to be outsiders in a sovereign Islamic state.  The so called Jihad element was supported by the US against the Soviets for over a decade; President Reagan dedicated Shuttle Columbia's space flight to jihad in Afghanistan. For some reason, the US chose to distance itself from the area after the Soviet Forces pulled out of Afghanistan. The command infrastructure, breeding and training centers (Mudressas) continued to hold on to what was left after ten years of devastating war. Not only that, even Pakistan, the main ally, was also discarded. After 9/11, in which all the involved terror elements were from areas other than Pakistan and Afghanistan, US stepped into Afghanistan without adequate planning and a clear strategy which could be in harmony with the environment at the time. If Afghanistan was turned into Vietnam for the Soviet Union, the same could be true for the US in Afghanistan. The influx of so called mujahedeen is entirely focused on presence of outside forces in Afghanistan. In fact the terrorism has reached different dimension ever since the US and its allies attacked Iraq and Afghanistan. The surge strategy in Iraq may facilitate the exit of US forces, but the surge in Afghanistan will have different implications. The enhanced presence attracts mujahedeen elements freed from Iraq. Today Afghanistan is the focal point of each intelligence agency (RAW, CIA, MI-6, MOSSAD to name a few) are working in the interest of their own countries; scores are being settled here for differences developed elsewhere between the so called allies or others. Let me now share with you about our concerns in Pakistan. During the US planning for the region, President Obama had clearly stated that Kashmir was the core issue which would need to be resolved amicably to ensure peace and stability in the region. This aspect was missing in the actual plan which resulted in AFPAK (lumping both together) for whatever reason and India was excluded..... a serious omission. Musharraf knew this and that was why he had started confidence building measures with India and also shared a few proposals for solving the Kashmir issue. He was aware that without a meaningful engagement with India which brings about a trust and readiness to address the issues, Pakistan will not be able to focus entirely on terror within and lean on the Durand Line to seal it off for elements  crossing over to Afghanistan and back. The Mumbai attack was not in the interest of Pakistan; this amounted to open hostilities with India, which in turn affected our focus on terrorism and the associated elements in FATA and Swat.... it was sometimes after that, that terrorism spread much faster in the settled districts of NWFP, Punjab and Balochistan..... This situation will need to be examined in detail by the policy makers here and USA before proceeding further. In the present situation Pakistan will be slowly but surely taken over by the Taliban; government is literally paralyzed, waiting for US commitment to the security of Pakistan by keeping India off its back, at least for the time, it will take Pakistan to overcome the Taliban. Taliban are few, the silent majority is that of moderate Muslims; a stronger government/ruler will have to protect the interests of this silent majority...like General Musharraf was trying to do. The present government, though elected is too weak to stand up to the pressure. Mr. Holbrooke, in his recent visit to India announced that India was the regional leader and without its support AFPAK problem could not be solved. This is likely to further complicate the problems for Pakistan. India has had quite an influence in Afghanistan from the beginning, in an anti Pakistan stance. India's consulates, quite a few in number and development of infrastructure in Afghanistan and its involvement inside Pakistan is a big SPOILER....it somehow does not fit in when the region and as a whole has had to deal with the common threat of terrorism. Having said that, behind the scene if Pakistan has to be singled out and India in collusion with Afghanistan and supported by the US to deal with it.......this will be the worst case scenario in which Pakistan will have to do all it can to survive till someone comes to its rescue; the Taliban and the mujahedeen will have to be orchestrated to support the cause of Pakistan. We have already experienced increased resistance and capacity of such elements and which has forced USA to increase its forces in Afghanistan. If Pakistan becomes the target for war on terror, by some error of judgment, then the effort being invested by the terrorists in and against Pakistan will also get refocused outside Pakistan..... worst case and likely to come true if the balance between  India and Pakistan is not maintained by USA. Pakistan can fight and overcome the Taliban provided it is fully supported by the USA and other allies. Monitory support alone and with condition will not do; more than half of it will be sucked back in any case. Following will need to be considered and included in the regional anti terror strategy: The US must demonstrate that it trusts Pakistan and support it with all it takes. India can only be relevant in the regional context(in the present anti terrorism plans) if it demonstrates that it means no harm to Pakistan and that it is willing to talk and solve the outstanding issues and that it will not resort to anti Pak activities in the region. Provide the military equipment, technical training and financial support so that Pakistan can unfold a balanced anti Taliban strategy comprising, pacification, socioeconomic development and use of force where required. Open up US and European markets for Pakistani goods which will reactivate and boost the industries... create the much needed jobs and so on.     This is a tall order but it is the price the USA has to pay for staying in Afghanistan for whatever motive while giving a chance to Pakistan to live. If not, Pakistan is doomed any way and it will have to do whatever it takes to survive  and may be, go down fighting the Taliban. The next best option is for the US and allied forces to pull out of Afghanistan, sooner the better.