Pakistan Declares Success in Swat Valley

We cast doubt on whether the Pakistani army's offensive into Swat would be productive in the long-run... or would just create better recruiting for the Taliban among large refugee populations. The fact that we haven't heard too much about the refugee crisis is a sign that it's not being handled too badly. Now, the army has declared success and the refugees are returning, but often to unstable conditions:

"We're not happy about going back," said Yaqoob Shah, 21, a laborer who, along with his parents and four brothers, fled their village of Thana and sought refuge at the sprawling Jalozai camp here in the town of Nowshera.

"The fighting is still going on there, but the government is forcing us to go," Shah said. "Yesterday there was a bomb blast in our village that killed nine security personnel. And there aren't any jobs there. There's nothing to go back to."

And Holbrooke is unsure the operation was a success:

"We don't know exactly to what extent the Pakistani Army dispersed or destroyed the enemy," Holbrooke told reporters on Wednesday, after returning from Pakistan and Afghanistan, according to Reuters. "The test of this operation is, of course, when the refugees return. Can they go home? Are they safe? And we're just going to have to wait and see."

The situation is not stable yet, though the army is claiming success. The Taliban is still attacking, and there is fear in the Pakistani and foreign governments that the Taliban have simply fled into the surrounding hills and are biding their time until the next, convenient attack. It also remains to be seen whether they will intimidate the local population.

In the meantime, as Pakistan and America both know, the Taliban in Afghanistan and Pakistan is a fairly fluid organization and fighters have no problem crossing the border into either country when the fighting gets tough. It is unlikely the problem will truly be addressed until there is a coherent, cross-border strategy.

Photo by AlJazeera English used under a Creative Commons license.