With the Japanese increasingly on edge about the potential threats from Pyongyang and the looming military buildup of the Chinese, the U.S. is trying to diplomatically ease their jitters. Recently confirmed Kurt Campbell and ASD Wallace Gregson headed to Tokyo this weekend to downplay concerns about the U.S. nuclear umbrella undergoing weather damage. Campbell was quoted as saying:
Our goal here is to make a very strong commitment to Japan about the fact that the nuclear deterrence of the United States are extended, the nuclear umbrella remains strong and stable, and our commitment to Japan is absolutely unshakable
The talks also produced an official working group that will take place in Washington to
begin a deep discussion about the elements of nuclear deterrence
The official and senior level attention being paid to the extended deterrence issue point to the rising fears in Japan as the nuclear allergy slow wears off and debates about developing a nuclear option start to occur with more frequency. The U.S. will likely take strong measures to assure the Japanese that they remain safely under the umbrella and should not seek their own capability but it will be interesting to keep an eye on what ideas and demands the Japanese bring to the discussion and how those implicate U.S. force requirements as we head into the NPR and START follow-on. For example, given the events that have occurred since the release of the Strategic Posture Commission report (which strongly emphasized the TLAM/N as important for extended deterrence), is there a greater probability the U.S. will be forced to retain capabilities it does not directly view as important to defend itself? The Obama administration has been quick to beef up extended deterrence commitments from a diplomatic standpoint as evidenced by the recent South Korean statement but how these diplomatic assurances play out in nuclear force shaping.