Playing Hard to Get

North Korea and Iran remain the talk of the town in the wake of the recent launch and centrifuge declaration, respectively.  In both cases, the U.S. has been careful not to emphasize the threat, for better and worse.

North Korea

While Obama inititally told the North Koreans, "the United States would "take appropriate steps to let North Korea know that it can't threaten the safety and security of other countries with impunity,"" it is perhaps more instructive that Gates announced that the United States would not shoot down the North Korean launch unless it was headed for the United States.  The benefit of the ignore strategy is that it takes the wind out of the North Korean's sails as they try to emphasize the greatness of the DPRK by pining for control of the music in space.  Daniel Sneider's op-ed in the NYT does a good job outlining the prospect that Kim Jong-Il may in fact be on his last leg and is trying to go out with a bang.  In this sense, brushing off the North Koreans makes perfect sense.  The ineffective test will fade into the distance, or the Pacific, while the regime fights an increasingly uphill battle to maintain control.  At the same time, pretending that nothing happened when rules are broken is not a strategy like to suddenly foster compliance. Krauthammer's takes the issue to an extreme but nonetheless has a point worth keeping in mind.  The Obama administration has initiatied a diplomatic surge around the globe that will be valuable to rebuild bridges burned over the past 8 years but there does have to be more than empty threats of condemnation from the Security Council that rarely come to fruition thanks to veto power when it is viewed that international rules have been broken.

Iran

A similar situation is arising with Iran.  In response to Ahmenijhad's statement that Iran is now running 7,000 centrifuges, Hillary Clinton said

We do not attribute any particular meaning, with respect to the range of issues that we are looking to address with the Iranians, from this particular statement

This brush off downplays the declaration and perhaps could be an example of a statement that has left Iran "confused" at how to respond to recent Obama overtures.  Past demonization of Iran makes life easy for Ahmenijhad as he plays up the evil West and creates a rally around the flag effect that he would love to have to his advantage in the upcoming June elections.  That being said, denial ain't just a river in Egypt.  Technical specifications of the statement or Iran's overall breakout capability aside, the U.S. must develop a detailed negotiation strategy that is informed by what the U.S. can live with and perhaps more importantly what happens if Iran were to reneg on the agreement or refuses to strike a deal (an outcome many feel is likely).  If partners are unwilling to help the U.S., it may need to figure out how to turn up the heat without inflaming nationalist sentiments which will not be an easy task.