PONI Fall Conference Panel 5 Summary

After the first day addressed a variety of broadly international nuclear issues, Panel Five turned inwards to focus on the conference’s host country and discuss “Key Issues Affecting UK Nuclear Posture.” The focal points of the discussion were how the UK could approach a scaled down submarine-based Trident force and ballistic missile defense, specifically the effect of the U.S. withdrawal from the ABM Treaty on other nuclear states and the use of wargame simulations in ballistic missile defense. In the Q & A, discussion was wide-ranging, beginning with the difficulty in developing the utility of simulations while making them accessible to policymakers and then moving on to ways the UK could cut costs, warhead numbers and possibly the number of deployed subs while maintaining a deterrence posture that would meet the needs of the MoD. The Q & A also included conversation about the effect of the spread of missiles and missile defense capabilities in terms of their impact on both horizontal and vertical proliferation, stability in a hypothetical environment when arms reductions treaties encompass all P5 states, and whether or not missile defense capabilities might one day be governed by an international framework or treaty such as something similar to the NPT.