PONI gets back in the saddle: Required Reading

After returning from a busy couple of weeks the PDI blog is getting back into things after a flurry of activity in the nuclear world.  In a number of meetings and conferences over the past couple of weeks, there seem to be 3 primary documents that have continue to surface: 1. Obama's Prague Speech-This will probably receive the most attention as it essentially lays out the administration's nuclear agenda for the time being.  As with many Obama initiatives thus far, it is very bold agenda.  Disarmament, START follow-on, CTBT, FMCT, NPT Strengthening, International Fuel Bank, dealing with Iran and North Korea, securing "all vulnerable nuclear material around the world within four years," and hosting a Global Summit on Nuclear Security is biting off at great deal to chew, to say the least.  While there has been some homework done on issues like START and CTBT as they were expected to be high on the agenda, determining the specifics for plans to secure all vulnerable material in 4 years and what precisely should occur at the Global Summit are conversations that must quickly begin to ensure the in-depth discussion needed to produce the best agreements possible. 2. The Obama-Medvedev joint statement-  The statement as a whole, including the nuclear section, had a very conciliatory tone that emphasized cooperation and politely noted a couple of disagreements in the context of discussing solutions amenable to both parties.  While the cooperative tone of the speech is a valuable step in the right direction to securing important U.S.- Russia cooperation, the question is what kind of results will the negotiations produce as the Obama transition starts to gel into place.  Russia hates missile defense but can or will they provide sufficient cooperation on Iran such that the U.S. scraps the deal?  People feel that START's time has come to be replaced in part because aspects of it are out of date and in part because there are issues not effectively covered by the treaty (e.g., Russia's distaste for the large number of U.S. delivery vehicles).  Can there be common ground found on these type of issues?  The July timeframe for the results report mentioned in the statement does not leave much time, particularly in light of Rose Gottemoeller's statement at the Carnegie conference

If things aren't going well, you cannot rush to the finish to get something done

The statement is smart in that it helps manage the expectations of strong newfound optimism but could also be foreshadowing of the immense difficulties that lie ahead in negotiations. 3.  Prime Minister Gordon Brown's March 17 speech at Lancaster House- Brown's speech represents an equally bold call for steps to move toward a world without nuclear weapons to help reduce security dangers in our world.  The speech put Britain's forthcoming 'Road to 2010" Plan on the map that will have "detailed proposals on civil nuclear power, disarmament and non-proliferation, on fissile material security and the role and development of the International Atomic Energy Agency."  The speech also highlights Britain's desire to be a leader in the quest to a world without nuclear weapons.  While securing Russian and Chinese support will likely be the much more difficult task, active British leadership on the issue can help in creating a Western consensus, still lacking enthusiastic French support, to move in this direction.  The speech also makes a couple of references to the important role of tough multilateral sanctions for countries that break the rules.  This may be an area ripe for research and innovative thought to help determine how to increase the support and effectiveness of sanctions which have not been terribly successful in stopping the Iranian or North Korean programs.