The power of letters
Michael Krepon published a new piece in the Daily Times that questions the standard number-centric approach of bracketing off specific ranges for warhead reduction (and possibly attaching timeframes to them) because "abolition schemes that focus on numbers and timelines provide little traction against states that find security in nuclear options." The article correctly cites the difficulty in getting someone to successfully lead the charge down and getting countries like China, India, and Pakistan on board. The solution? Revert to a report card system that experts will annually issue in concert with a "menu" of near-term steps that can be taken. If the political, strategic, and ideological attachment to nuclear weapons here (GSN yesterday had a good article on the recent domestic pushback to the new nuclear agenda) and abroad is so strong, the report card approach may suffer from the same problem as the numbers system: the benefits of nuclear weapons for many countries may outweigh the criticism for dragging their feet. If everyone is failing class, why put in the effort to get an A?
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Your analysis makes a lot of
Your analysis makes a lot of sense to me.
A report card might be a step towards a better process, but if not done in combination with a new host of benefits for not proliferating it won't do much.