Progress and Impasse in Syria

In its safeguards report on Syria released Monday, the IAEA noted a number of ongoing discrepancies between Syrian statements and evidence gathered from the suspected reactor that Israel destroyed at Al Kibar in 2007 and the Miniature Neutron Source Reactor (MNSR) under IAEA safeguards in Damascus. Syria refuses to discuss Al Kibar (aka Dair Alzour), and requests to view technical documentation of the destroyed building and access to its debris, the munitions that destroyed it, and any salvaged equipment remain unanswered. Traces of anthropogenic (chemically processed) natural uranium found at the site remain unaccounted for. While Syria alleges that the traces originated with the Israeli missiles used in the strike, it refuses to substantiate the claim, and the Agency has all but ruled this explanation out.

Syria’s subsequent argument was that, as a military and non-nuclear facility, Syria was under no obligation to provide information on Dair Alzour and related locations under IAEA suspicion. Additionally, it was argued that the natural uranium particles found at the location did not constitute undeclared nuclear material. The Agency noted that, under its Safeguards Agreement, crying “military site” did not shield Syria from responding to its requests for information. On the presence of nuclear material, the Agency noted that it at least “gives rise to questions about the correctness and completeness of Syria’s declaration, which the Agency is obliged to pursue.”

The Agency has made more headway in addressing questions surrounding the MNSR in Damascus. After disproving a number of Syrian explanations over the presence there of anthropogenic natural uranium, Syria offered another source, undeclared supplies of uranium:

. . . Syria identified other possible sources of the anthropogenic natural uranium particles, including domestically produced yellowcake and small quantities of imported, but previously undeclared, commercial uranyl nitrate. Syria also provided a document to support its explanation for the presence of the uranyl nitrate at the MNSR.

On Tuesday, the IAEA visited Damascus to inspect the MNSR and take samples of the yellowcake and uranyl nitrate. According to ISIS’ analysis of the report, “The presence of the uranium particles at the research reactor site in Damascus, along with the production of yellowcake and the procurement of uranyl nitrate, indicates that Syria is attempting to develop a level of competence in the processing of uranium.” What the results of the inspection will reveal is unclear, but it’s going to be hard to stall the IAEA forever.

If it’s going to keep this up, Syria is going to have to learn to stonewall like a master.