The Push for the CTBT

Daryl Kimball at the Arms Control Associated published a December piece providing another call for Senate ratification of the CTBT. He stresses the importance of Obama's involvement and determines the needed two-thirds majority "will be difficult but it is possible." He cites increased monitoring capabilities and untapped public support as important differences from the '99 votes. On the question of marinating the U.S. deterrent he argues,

The same NAS report also found that the current Stockpile Stewardship Program provides the technical capabilities that are necessary to maintain confidence in the safety and reliability of its existing nuclear weapons stockpile, "provided that adequate resources are made available...and are properly focused on this task." . . . Some have suggested pursuing President George W. Bush's costly plan for new, so-called reliable replacement warheads to assuage CTBT skeptics.  Such bargain are risky and unnecessary and would contradict Obama's campaign pledge "not to authorize the development of new nuclear weapons." The U.S. capability to maintain existing stockpile warheads is more than adequate.     

 Can the LEP adequately ensure U.S. nuclear capability? Will an RRW for CTBT horse trade be enough to push the treaty through the Senate?