The Race for the DF - A New Focus on Security

By Duncan Wood

In addition to the presidential and congressional contests in July, Mexico will see elections in a number of states. The most important of these will take place in the Federal District, where the PRD has been in power for the past 18 years, including the successful terms of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (2000-2006) and Marcelo Ebrard (2006-2012).  With the PRI leading in opinion polls, there is now a strong chance for a change in ruling party in the nation's capital,

It is, however, early in the race and the parties are only just defining their candidates. A week ago the PAN surprised observers by nominating their candidate for the mayorship of Mexico City rather than going through a full primary process. The PAN's choice of candidate also raised eyebrows. In recent months the leading contender had been Demetrio Sodi, a Mexico City politician with a long history of service to the party. In the end, however, the party nominated Isabel Miranda de Wallace, a civil society activist whose son was kidnapped in 2005 and has never been found. The decision by the party to nominate its candidate, rather than allow the rank and file to choose through a primary election, surprised many as a desertion of the PAN's discourse of abiding by democratic processes, highlighted by the ongoing race for the party's presidential nomination.

Since the disappearance of her son, Miranda Wallace has been a high profile campaigner against public insecurity, advocating heavier sentences for kidnapping and murder. Her nomination by the PAN suggests that the party is aiming to run a campaign for the Federal District based on security issues.   

This PAN’s security focus has been echoed in the PRD's choice for a mayoral candidate. Miguel Ángel Mancera, the former attorney general of the Federal District in the Ebrard government, was chosen over Alejandra Barrales, his closest rival, on January 19. As with their choice for the presidential candidacy, the left wing coalition avoided a potentially divisive primary process by posing 5 questions in an opinion poll. Mancera's background as attorney general is important as it is clear that the party sees him as a candidate with strong security credentials in an election that will focus on questions of organized crime and violence.

Up to this point, the PRI has not chosen its candidate, but recent polls show that Beatriz Paredes is the most likely candidate. Seen just a year ago as an outsider for the PRI's presidential nomination, Paredes has since emerged as its strongest candidate in the DF.  Recent polls suggest that with her as the candidate, the PRI can challenge the PRD in the city. Many analysts believe, however, that the long tradition of PRD rule in the DF will be very difficult to overturn.

The emerging focus on security is understandable given recent news coverage of the potential spread of drug-related violence to the Mexico City area. The discovery of two decapitated bodies in a burned-out car in the parking lot of an up-market shopping center prompted a number of national and foreign news outlets to focus on the extension of the violence to formerly safe areas in the country. It is clearly an issue that will dominate the election campaigns throughout the country in the coming months.

Duncan Wood is a senior associate with the Simon Chair and the Americas Program.