Reflecting on Religion

Returning from major holidays in Christianity (Easter) and Judaism (Passover), it is an opportune time to reflect on the future of religion in the United States, drawing on historical data from 1990-2008. Let's examine three trends shaping the future of religious engagement in America.

First, the numbers of people who classify themselves as Baptist, Methodist, and Jewish have dropped substantially. From 1990-2008, Baptists went from 19.3% of the population to 15.8%; Methodists 8% to 5%; and Jews 1.8% to 1.2%. There is no reason to expect this decrease to slow in coming years.

Second, accompanying the fall in popularity of some religions has been the rise in the number of those who classify themselves as members of no religion. As of last year, 15% of Americans claimed no religion at all. That figure is up from 8% in 1990 and 2% in 1962.

The rise of secularism can be expected to continue. Young adults today are strongly secular. Only 25% of individuals in this group attend services regularly. Because these young adults will go on to raise families which might be non-denominational, it can be expected that the number of secular individuals will rise.

Third, the numbers of Catholics has basically remained the same. The total percentage of Catholics in the USA declined only slightly from 1990 to 2008, from 26.2% to 25.1%.

Immigration in the future will bolster the numbers of practicing Catholics. Between now and 2050, over 58 million immigrants will come to the United States from Latin America. Most of these immigrants are, and will be, Roman Catholic. As a matter of fact, by some estimates, Latino immigrants already make up about 1/3 of worshipping Catholics in the United States.

Those three predictions taken together paint a picture of a slightly different America. If they prove correct, the America of the future will be both more a theistic and more secular nation.