Report Alleges Saudi Arabia Approves Israeli Attack on Iran's Nuclear Sites

Jun 14, 2010

By Oliver Bloom

Over the weekend, the Times of London released a story alleging that Saudi Arabia has given Israel tacit approval to use its airspace in an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. According to the Times,

Saudi Arabia has conducted tests to stand down its air defences to enable Israeli jets to make a bombing raid on Iran’s nuclear facilities.

[…]

To ensure the Israeli bombers pass unmolested, Riyadh has carried out tests to make certain its own jets are not scrambled and missile defence systems not activated. Once the Israelis are through, the kingdom’s air defences will return to full alert.

The article also cited an unnamed U.S. defense source in the region who corroborated the claims, saying

The Saudis have given their permission for the Israelis to pass over and they will look the other way. They have already done tests to make sure their own jets aren’t scrambled and no one gets shot down. This has all been done with the agreement of the [US] State Department.

The official Saudi Press Agency, however, denied the Times article. Citing an official source within the Saudi Foreign Ministry, the Press Agency reported that

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia followed some British media's allegations based on slander and false accusation that it will allow Israel to launch an attack on Iran through its territory.

The source stated that Kingdom of Saudi Arabia reiterates its position of firm opposition and rejection of the violation of its sovereignty and the use of its airspace or territory by anyone to attack any country and it is more appropriate that Saudi Arabia should apply this policy to the authority of the Israeli occupation with which it has no relationship in any way.

The Times article also commented on the four likely targets of the raid:

the uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz and Qom, the gas storage development at Isfahan and the heavy-water reactor at Arak. Secondary targets include the lightwater reactor at Bushehr, which could produce weapons-grade plutonium when complete.

Flying through Saudi airspace would save the Israeli aircraft precious jet fuel. Even so, an Israeli attack would also likely need approval from the United States to fly across Iraqi airspace, something the Obama administration has been unwilling to give. What’s more, as the Times reports,

Military analysts say Israel has held back only because of this failure to secure consensus from America and Arab states. Military analysts doubt that an airstrike alone would be sufficient to knock out the key nuclear facilities, which are heavily fortified and deep underground or within mountains.

Despite the logistic and technical difficulties of any attack, the Israeli government may be unwilling to stand idly by and watch the Iranians develop nuclear weapons.

Any Israeli attack on Iran would immediately draw parallels to Israeli’s attack on Syria’s suspected nuclear reactor in 2007 and on Iraq’s Osirak reactor in 1981. In the case of the former, as the Times noted,

Israel was reported to have used Turkish air space to attack a suspected nuclear reactor being built by Iran’s main regional ally, Syria. Although Turkey publicly protested against the “violation” of its air space, it is thought to have turned a blind eye in what many saw as a dry run for a strike on Iran’s far more substantial — and better-defended — nuclear sites.

And during Israel’s 1981 attack on the Osirak reactor, Israeli planes flew unchallenged through Jordanian and Saudi airspace, flying low, only 120m off the ground.

While the Israelis had success in the Syrian and Iraqi operations, an attack on Iran would be much more difficult. Given the limited range and capabilities of Israel’s air force, it would be difficult for them to hit all of the key elements of Iran’s nuclear program, which, unlikely in the case of Syria and Iraq, are spread across the country. Furthermore, Iran has learned from the Syrian and Iraqi example and has buried large portions of its nuclear facilities in mountains. What’s more, as we wrote about in the PONI blog last week, Iran is in the process of upgrading its air defense capabilities to possibly include some of the most advanced surface to air missiles available in the world today. Israel will thus be hard pressed to hit more numerous targets that are better protected and further away.

Given the use of unnamed sources, it’s difficult to ascertain the veracity of the Times’ report. Nevertheless, the underlying issues are true. Both Saudi Arabia and Israel are gravely concerned about Iran’s nuclear program, but domestic audiences and complex international perceptions severely inhibit any public collaboration. In spite of any secret cooperation, the technical difficulties of such an attack may be so high that the United States alone possesses the capabilities to conduct such an operation. Even so, the United States has rightly acknowledged the difficulties of such an operation and the limits any operation may have, and thus, has focused its energies on the diplomatic front.