Return of the Jedi

The "Gang of 4," as they are known, published another op-ed this January. Unlike the last two that focused primarily on outlining the vision of a world without nuclear weapons, this piece emphasizes the "maintain a strong deterrent" aspect of the debate a great deal more which injects a sense of pragmatism about some of the actions that will be required on the path to the vision of zero.  The big news for many will be the endorsement of the JASON's language about the viability of current practices to maintain confidence in the warheads (although the op-ed did note "Departures from our existing stewardship strategies should be taken when they are essential to maintain a safe, secure and effective deterrent").  As suggested last week, the real issue that does not got enough discussion in debates about "modernization" of warheads, infrastrucutre, and delivery systems is the people.   The four horseman devoted a good deal of the piece to this important subject by explaining:

These investments are urgently needed to undo the adverse consequences of deep reductions over the past five years in the laboratories' budgets for the science, technology and engineering programs that support and underwrite the nation's nuclear deterrent. The United States must continue to attract, develop and retain the outstanding scientists, engineers, designers and technicians we will need to maintain our nuclear arsenal, whatever its size, for as long as the nation's security requires it.  This scientific capability is equally important to the long-term goal of achieving and maintaining a world free of nuclear weapons—with all the attendant expertise on verification, detection, prevention and enforcement that is required . . . The JASON study found that the "[l]ifetimes of today's nuclear warheads could be extended for decades, with no anticipated loss in confidence, by using approaches similar to those employed in Life Extension Programs to date." But the JASON scientists also expressed concern that "[a]ll options for extending the life of the nuclear weapons stockpile rely on the continuing maintenance and renewal of expertise and capabilities in science, technology, engineering, and production unique to the nuclear weapons program." The study team said it was "concerned that this expertise is threatened by lack of program stability, perceived lack of mission importance, and degradation of the work environment." These concerns can and must be addressed by providing adequate and stable funding for the program. Maintaining high confidence in our nuclear arsenal is critical as the number of these weapons goes down. It is also consistent with and necessary for U.S. leadership in nonproliferation, risk reduction, and arms reduction goals. By providing for the long-term investments required, we also strengthen trust and confidence in our technical capabilities to take the essential steps needed to reduce nuclear dangers throughout the globe. These steps include preventing proliferation and preventing nuclear weapons or weapons-usable material from getting into dangerous hands. [emphasis mine]

Determining how much funding is adequate and how to ensure that the funding is perceived, primarily by the scientists, as stable over the long term will be crucial tasks for the administration to tackle as they seek to draw the best and brightest to this work on the long and winding road to zero.