Revisiting China’s One Child Policy

Since the Chinese government imposed the one-child legislation in 1979, a ‘systematic examination’ of the policy shows that it has prevented 400 million births.  The current five-year policy extension plan ends in 2010, and some officials are contemplating the idea of allowing Chinese women the option of having two children.  Others say that this is not likely to happen. According to a BBC article,

Chinese officials say the current fertility rate is between 1.7 and 1.8 births per woman, well below the 2.1 births needed to keep the population at a stable level. Overseas experts dispute this figure; they say the fertility rate is even lower and stands at 1.5. This will result in an increasing proportion of older people, a smaller workforce to look after them and a disproportionate number of boys to girls.

With China’s booming economy projected to surpass the United States by 2041, the country may be forced to relax the one child policy in order to sustain its economic growth.  For more on population issues, check out the CSIS Global Aging Initiative and Demography Matters.