Right Around the Corner

Since the 1950s, many in science have claimed that human-like robots are right around the corner. But, even with the technology today, it seems as though our society is far from being able to create a robot that can fully mimic a human. The hold-up is a result of the current inability to produce a "computer-based brain" which is powerful as those we posses. But, this article argues human-like computation in robots will be realized within 30 years or less.

Hans Moravec, a robotics specialist at Carnegie Mellon, speculates that a computer would have to be able to compute 100 trillion instructions per second to emulate the human brain. That means that to perform like a human brain a “futuristic” PC would have to be 1,000 times more powerful than the average PC produced in 2008. This bridge between current computer power and that needed in the future may seem large. But, keep in mind that computational power doubled each year in the 1990s. Experts believe the doubling of processing speed every year will continue to grow exponentially well into the next decade.

Living in a world where computers are as smart as and can learn as quickly as humans will change the way people live. According to Moravec, the rise of robots will lead to a “fundamental restructuring of our society” (sounds like our friend Ray Kurzweil, no?). Business practices, scientific advances, and even athletic competitions could all be held without people. Based on the articles, it appears as though human-like robots are truly right around the corner. Whether people in society will be willing to accommodate their integration is another issue.