Senator Bob Bennett Leans in Favor of New START

Jul 30, 2010

By Oliver Bloom

In a positive sign for New START, reports emerged earlier this week that Senator Bob Bennett (R-UT) is leaning towards voting in favor of New START ratification. In an interview with the Salt Lake Tribune, Senator Bennett told the paper that

We are now at a point where I think this is probably a good idea. I think it is a step in the right direction, a continuation of the thawing, if you will, of relationships between the United States and Russia that goes all the way back to Ronald Reagan.

Bennett says he is waiting to officially announce his support for the Treaty until after Senator Jon Kyl, one of the key GOP Senators on the issue, finishes his review. Senator Bennett told The Cable on Tuesday that

I'm waiting for Senator Kyl to finish his analysis, but he's leaning yes and I'm leaning yes.

Bennett, defeated in the Republican primary earlier this year, may feel more at liberty to vote in favor of the Treaty, despite right-wing pressure, from the Heritage Foundation and the Tea Party, to vote against it.

So far, Foreign Relations Committee Ranking Member Richard Lugar has been the only GOP Senator to announce his support for New START. If all 57 Democrats and both Independents vote in favor of New START, the White House will still need at least eight Republicans to cross the 67 vote threshold for ratification. If all eight Republican Senators who voted in favor of the original START agreement vote in favor of New START (Richard Lugar, Mitch McConnell, John McCain, Orin Hatch, Chuck Grassley, Kit Bond, Thad Cochrane and Richard Shelby), the Treaty will pass the necessary threshold. Only Senators James Inhofe (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) have announced their opposition to the Treaty.

The White House began an aggressive push last week to garner Republican support for the Treaty, hoping for ratification before the November elections and possible Democratic losses. Both Vice President Joe Biden and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have met personally with Republican Senators to answer questions and assuage fears. According to the Cable, Republican Senators continue to have questions about certain elements of the Treaty and the President’s modernization plan.

"Hopefully we can create an environment, after general study, that would permit the Senate to ratify the treaty in a bipartisan way," Sen. Lamar Alexander, R-TN, the third-ranking senator in the Republican caucus, told The Cable. "But we're not there yet."

"It will depend primarily on whether we can have an adequate nuclear modernization program going forward," he said. "I'm working very closely with Senator Kyl to make that happen."

Other GOP senators aren't yet showing their cards, and are withholding their support until their particular concerns are addressed.

Sen. John Thune, R-SD, told The Cable that he is waiting for a response to his request for a briefing from the Defense Department about the Pentagon's intentions regarding delivery systems for nuclear weapons. In Thune's eyes, the new treaty doesn't have enough clarity on the mix of bombers, missiles, and submarines that will be used going forward.

In an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, Senator Kyl said that

It's hard to see senators considering the treaty before the fiscal year 2011 [nuclear modernization] funding is appropriated and before they confirm that the 2012 budget will include adequate funding for the next fiscal year.

Despite President Obama’s $80 billion pledge over ten years for nuclear modernization, confirming the FY12 budget would delay treaty ratification until next year. Providing that the President can convince the GOP that he is serious about nuclear modernization (presumably the aim of the large modernization budget and repeated visits by Administration officials), the President may be able to get a vote before the November elections. One has to wonder however, if the GOP delays are really about getting a look at the FY12 budget or if they are hoping that delays past the election will put them in a more favorable position. What greater numbers would entail for New START ratification is unclear. Would the GOP seek concessions on missile defense, nuclear modernization or new warheads, add unilateral statements during ratification, or seek concessions on other matters entirely?

Foreign Relations Committee Chair John Kerry tentatively planned a committee vote for next Wednesday, before the Senate summer recess, but quickly announced that the decision wasn’t final. Committee spokesman Frederick Jones told POLITICO's Jen DiMascio,

Senator Kerry is working with his colleagues and the administration to hear views and address questions raised by senators about the New START treaty and related issues as quickly as possible. These efforts and discussions are ongoing, and as of now no final decision has been made about whether to proceed with the vote in the Foreign Relations Committee next week.

Despite impressive bipartisan support from foreign policy experts and many in the military for the Treaty, the White House has faced skepticism from many Republican Senators. Misconstrued analyses of the State Department’s 2010 Treaty Compliance Report, released earlier this week, looked to complicate treaty ratification. However, the positive sign from Senator Bennett, in combination with the White House’s recent push towards ratification, may be enough to get the extremely modest Treaty through the Senate. The combination of the 1251 Report on force structure and modernization, various other government assessments on the treaty, repeated visits and answers by Administration officials, and bipartisan and overwhelming civilian and military support may finally be enough to get the seemingly noncontroversial treaty through the Senate.