With the events surrounding Iran's nuclear and missile program over the last week, its probably fair to say that Israel is probably closer than ever to engaging in airstrikes against Iranian nuclear and missile facilities.
Anthony H. Cordesman recently wrote a very good article detailing the problems that Israel would likely confront if the country did decide to engage Iran. Unfortunately for Iran, an effective air defense system was not among the problems Israel is likely to confront. The recent aerial collision involving Iran’s only (very outdated) Airborne Early Warning and Control System (AWACS) aircraft highlights the dismal state of Iran’s early warning and air defense infrastructure.
Although it would not greatly hamper U.S. operations, if Iran were to acquire an improved air defense capability the potential of an Israeli airstrike would likely become almost non-existent overnight. Only some of the benefits would include:
- The credence of Israeli threats would be marginalized
- Increased availability of Iranian fighters whose airspace denial missions would be more effectively performed by modern air defense systems.
- A uniform command and control infrastructure for air defense operations
- Reduced effectiveness of electronic warfare operations
Enhanced coverage areas reducing the avenues of approach that would be available if Israel were to engage Iran.
Iran, well aware of their predicament, has been aggressively pursuing modern air defense technology over the past few years. Currently, Iran is in negotiations with Russia over the S-300PMU (SA-10) air defense system. Delivery and necessary training for the S-300 has likely been held up in response to Western pressure. There have been sporadic reports that Iran may have already acquired several S-300 batteries and other equipment from Libya.
Despite this setback, the Iranians appear to be in negotiations to acquire a Chinese made air defense system called the HongQi-9/FD 2000 (HQ-9). The system was derived primarily from reverse engineering of the U.S. Patriot and the Russian S-300 systems. While the system is inferior to the Russian S-300 it would significantly improve Iran’s ability to defend nuclear sites and other strategic locations.
If Iran has or were to acquire any of these systems Western options to stem Iranian proliferation would be significantly marginalized. The Obama Administration must take all necessary steps to ensure that the U.S. has an accurate order of battle that takes into account any and all air and air defense capabilities that Iran possesses, increase pressure to persuade China against providing the HQ-9, and continue to pursue sanctions that will prevent Iran from acquiring the technology or know how to develop their own domestic air defense capability.
