Somalis Balk at Outsiders — Including Osama Bin Laden | TIME

Flikr photo by opponent used under a Creative Commons license.   Finally, there has been a potentially positive turn of events in Somalia since lawmakers elected President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed on January 31, and since Osama bin Laden released an 11-minute video demading his overthrow.  The lesson the U.S. has learned from Somalia, and apparently al-Qaeda has not, is that Somalis do not appreciate being told what to do in their own country.  On Friday, TIME spoke with Somalia experts Ken Menkhaus and Karin von Hippel about the interesting turn of events. 

Karin von Hippel, a Somali specialist and senior fellow at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, agrees. “This is the first time that those of us who have been watching Somalia for all these years have been able to feel a bit optimistic,” she says. Somalia last had a functioning government in 1991 and “99% of Somalis are fed up with 20 years of fighting and no government, and are willing to give Sharif a chance,” she adds. “He’s someone who had a hand in the ICU [Islamic Courts Union], but who can also approach other Somalis. They see him as good enough. There’s a slight chance that things are moving in the right direction.”

Both Menkhaus and von Hippel caution that Somalia’s new government faces the steepest of obstacles. Even without the Islamists, 18 years of war have robbed it of almost all infrastructure and anything resembling law, left millions of its people on the edge of starvation and given it a raging piracy problem along its coasts. But both warn that the world should not flood Somalia with help. Von Hippel said experience had shown that international peacekeepers or a U.N.-sponsored drive to create a central government were inappropriate to Somalia. Far more important was building up Somalia’s own security services and the creation of a decentralized administration more suited to the country’s clan structure. Menkhaus adds that the last thing Sheikh Sharif needs is overt Western backing. “The tape is a warning to the U.S. and U.N.,” said Menkhaus. “Diffuse any idea that Sharif’s administration is a puppet by limiting yourself to quiet support. Don’t kill this administration with kindness.”