Some Thoughts on the U.S. Handover of Anbar Province in Iraq

On Monday, September 1, 2008, Anbar Province officially became the 11th transfer of provincial authority from U.S. military control to Iraqi security forces.  Two years ago, Anbar Province had been identified as the most insecure and deadly region in Iraq for U.S. and coalition forces. See the Interview with CSIS PCR Project Co-Director Rick Barton on The World, BBC.  Anbar Province was an ideological stronghold for al Qaeda in Mesopotamia and a hotspot for the Sunni insurgency up until 2006, when al Qaeda insurgents began targeting and killing prominent local sheiks who had met with U.S. officials.  The break between the tribal leaders and al Qaeda in Anbar Province became known as the “Anbar Awakening.”  With backing and financial support from the U.S. military, the Awakening Councils mobilized Sunni tribesmen to drive out al Qaeda in less than two years. Going forward, the greatest threat to security and stabilization in Anbar Province is not sectarian violence since the region is predominantly Sunni; rather, it is tension between the Sunni tribal leaders, who led the victory over al Qaeda in Anbar, and the Shiite-led central government of Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki. While the government has proposed integrating a fraction of the Sunni fighters into the Shiite dominated security sector, it has simultaneously issued arrest warrants for over 650 Awakening Council members dating back to December 2007.  Additionally, the government has demanded the Sunni forces disarm and has even alleged ties between Awakening Council members and al Qaeda.  See Washington Post Article here. It is unclear precisely how the Iraqi government plans to move ahead with integrating the Sunni fighters into the national security forces or what the backlash might be for the arrests of Awakening Council members on sectarian violence in Iraq.  Questions such as exactly how many Awakening Council members were on the U.S. payroll and how the Iraqi government plans to assume authority over the fighting force remains uncertain.  One of the most pressing concerns is what will happen to Sunni fighters who are not successfully demobilized and no longer on any government payroll.  The prospect of marginalized and armed Awakening Council fighters in Iraq presents a threat to peace and stability that cannot be ignored.  Real adverse consequences may present themselves, particularly during provincial elections in Anbar Province, most recently hailed as an example of U.S. success in Iraq.     What do you think?  Leave your questions and comments on the Anbar Province handover and the U.S.-backed Awakening Councils in Iraq.