State of Mexico Elections: The Home Stretch

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

On July 3 the most anticipated elections of 2011 will occur in the State of Mexico (Edomex) to decide who will be the next governor of the state. As this blog has discussed, the electoral prospects of the three main parties in next year’s federal elections will be significantly impacted by the outcome of the Edomex election. Should the PRI win (as looks increasingly likely), the party will have a strong base for campaigning next year in Mexico’s most populous state. Furthermore, Enrique Peña Nieto, the current governor of the state and the leading contender to be the PRI’s presidential candidate next year, will have ensured a safe handover of power to his successor, thereby strengthening his leadership credentials.

On the evening of June 22, the three main candidates held their final debate. Apart from the restatement of their electoral platforms and promises, the most intriguing moment in the debate came when Alejandro Encinas, the candidate for the PRD-PT-Convergencia alliance, Unidos Podemos Más, called for PAN and PRI voters alike to vote tactically (voto util) and switch their preference to him on July 3, in order to break the tradition of PRI corruption and mismanagement in the state. The PAN candidate, Luis Felipe Bravo Mena, reacted fiercely to Encinas’s request, arguing that the PRD has rejected the offer of an official alliance in the state due to potential presidential candidate Andrés Manuel  López Obrador’s (AMLO) vociferous opposition.

But what would happen if PAN voters switched their allegiance and voted tactically on July 3? The most recent poll, taken on June 11 and released on June 20, shows that the PRI-led coalition candidate, Eruviel Ávila Villegas, led with 59 percent over Encinas at 27 percent and Bravo Mena at 14 percent. The poor performance of the PAN candidate suggests that it would indeed make more sense for Panistas to vote tactically as their party stands zero chance of winning. However, even with tactical voting and the transfer of all Panista support to Encinas, Eruviel would still hold a healthy lead of 59%-41%.  Such a big lead is surely impossible to overcome with only 10 days to go before the election.

What does this mean for 2012? First, the PRI is now almost guaranteed a strong base in the Edomex from which to campaign in 2012. Second, it shows the importance of the PRD and PAN deciding soon whether they will try to find a unity candidate. Given AMLO’s opposition to the idea, and his strong support within the PRD, this seems unlikely. Third, the PRD and PAN need to identify who their respective candidates will be, and must do so soon, so as to maximize the opportunity for unofficial campaigning on a unified basis within the parties.