Swat Valley Update

Flikr photo by Al Jazeera English used under a Creative Commons license. Fighting between the Taliban and the Pakistani military continues in Swat Valley. Since no reporters are allowed into the zone, it is difficult to ascertain exactly what is going on, though the government claims it is close to success. Tim Foxley is concerned that this battle resembles the 2001 US-led invasion, and will lead to the same resilient insurgency that rose up in Afghanistan:

I can’t help noticing the parallels between this operation and the original Oct 01 – Jan 02 US-led Coalition intervention against the Afghan Taliban. In those days the Afghan Taliban had been ruling Afghanistan as a sort of government, organised for - and engaged in - broadly conventional warfare against the Northern Alliance. They really had no option other than to fight back against the Coalition on broadly conventional terms. Although, to my memory, the outcome back in Nov 2001 was by no means certain, once the Taliban frontlines started to unravel, their armed forces came apart rapidly.

The humanitarian crisis is worsening because there is little infrastructure in place to support the millions of people who have fled the fighting. The BBC reports on the aftermath of battling in Mingora:

The International Red Cross said it was "gravely concerned" by the humanitarian situation in Swat. Water and electricity were not available, there was no fuel for generators, most medical facilities had stopped operating and food was scarce, it said. "The people of Swat need greater humanitarian protection and assistance immediately," said Pascal Cuttat, head of the organisation's delegation in Pakistan.

After the military succeeds against the Taliban, Pakistan will be left with millions of internally displaced people and plenty of infrastructure to replace. According to reports, the IDPs are not receiving the support they need yet:

The government has been overwhelmed by the human tide that has washed over the northwest as about 2 million people have fled fierce clashes in Swat. With Pakistan experiencing its largest exodus since the nation's partition from India in 1947, only a fraction of the displaced civilians are receiving assistance in government-run camps. The rest are fending for themselves or getting help from private charities, including some that are allied with the very forces the Pakistani army is fighting in Swat.

IDPs are being forced to turn to organizations with links to the groups fighting the government. Moreover, the Post points out, insecurity breeds extremism.

Refugee camps in Pakistan have been prime recruiting grounds for militant groups ever since the Soviet invasion forced millions of Afghans to cross into Pakistan in the 1980s. Now, concern is growing that this latest wave of displacement will create a fresh crop of Pakistanis with grievances against the government and loyalty to groups that seek to undermine the state through violent insurgency.

CHUP! points out that the mass migrations are causing tensions not just for the IDPs themselves, but also for their host regions, and creating instability from fears of "Talibanization" and existing ethnic tension.

While ethnic tension between Pashtuns and Sindhis is not a new phenomenon [riots between the groups began in the mid-1980s], the recent rise of immigrant Pashtuns into the province, particularly in Karachi, have sparked increased violence and unrest.

The United Nations requested $543 million in support, and the US has already pledged $110 million. The displacement that the offensive in Swat caused may become a more persistent problem than the Taliban advance itself.