In Sync?

As the debate on the timeline for Iran's breakout capability rages on, the New York Times had a piece over the weekend discussing the differing views of Director of DNI Admiral Blair and Israel chief of military intelligence Amos Yadlin.  Could the Israelis be hyping up the threat to try to convince the United States to increase pressure? Sure.  How confident are we in estimates for the total time needed for Iran to have enough LEU for a bomb, enrich it to HEU, and the produce the accompanying technology for a bomb?  Tough to say.  Without delving into the litany of breakout estimates it is nonetheless important to consider some of the implications of the lack of consensus: 1. The view from Jerusalem- The magnitude with which Israel views the threat of a nuclear Iran likely means that "the nuclear-threat clock ticks a lot faster in Jerusalem."  With Israel pressing for fast negotiation timelines, it is important for the U.S. and Israel to be on the same page to the greatest degree possible.  While the sensitive nature of this type of intelligence will no doubt complicate matters, the U.S. and Israel should try to be in the same ballpark when it comes to watershed milestones and timelines as the Iranian nuclear program progresses to reduce the possibility of an Israeli attack that could have drastic consequences. 2. How intelligence estimates could impact initial negotiations-  Accurate intelligence estimates are important to help determine where the U.S. puts the rough mark on the wall in the initial negotiations with the Iranian regime.  The U.S. has to delicately balance appearing to take the Iranians seriously while not ceding too much so as to embolden the regime.  Breakout estimates may implicate factors such as how long negotiations can take, whether a temporary freeze should be evaluated, and perhaps even whether the U.S. would allow some level of enrichment capability post-negotiations.  As it turns out, the negotiations themselves may prove just as tough, if not more so, than the journey to get there.