Theirs to Lose: The PRI and the 2012 Election

Duncan Wood

Office of the Simon Chair

From disaster to the brink of power
 

A remarkable transition has occurred in Mexican politics since the summer of 2006. On the morning of July 4th that year, the PRI had been relegated to third place in the polls and was divided internally with little prospect of regaining its formerly hegemonic position in the foreseeable future. Five years later, the party is predominant in the opinion polls, is the largest party in both houses of Congress, and has the leading contender for the presidency, Enrique Peña Nieto.

Perhaps the low point for the PRI in 2006 occurred not on Election Day, July 3rd, but rather during the second televised debate between the presidential candidates. While future President Felipe Calderón from the PAN appeared serious, professional and presidential, PRI presidential candidate Roberto Madrazo dropped his papers and bent down to pick them up, momentarily disappearing out of camera shot, leaving only an empty podium to fill TV screens across the country.

But from July 2006 until the end of that year, as the incoming Calderón administration and the supporters of Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the PRD candidate, battled over the election results, the PRI began a process of gradual rehabilitation. Rebuilding its grassroots support and focusing on establishing an effective opposition from the Congress, the PRI has benefited from the self-destruction of the PRD and the many problems faced by the ruling PAN, from the drugs conflict to H1N1 to the economic crisis of 2008-2009. By winning state-level elections across Mexico and then scoring an impressive victory in the Congressional elections of 2009, the PRI has put itself into pole position in the lead-in to 2012.

In this blog entry, I examine the leading contenders for the PRI nomination, analyzing their respective backgrounds and electability. It is important to note that although Enrique Peña Nieto remains far and away the most likely candidate for the PRI, Mexican politics constantly throws up surprises and nothing should be taken for granted. In 2005, one of the leading candidates, the then-governor of the State of Mexico, Arturo Montiel, was forced from the race for the presidency by revelations about his private life and accusations of corruption that emerged from the camp of the eventual PRI candidate, Roberto Madrazo. Mexican political observers are waiting with bated breath to see if any similar accusations emerge about Peña Nieto.

Enrique Peña Nieto:
Currently serving as governor of the State of Mexico, Enrique Peña Nieto is not only the frontrunner for the PRI party nomination, but is far and away the leading candidate nationally among all parties for the presidency. As governor, a position he won in 2005 with 49% of the vote, Peña Nieto has steadily become one of the most recognized personalities in Mexican politics and has been put forward by his supporters as representing the “new face of the PRI”. Although still young, he has had a long career in politics in the State of Mexico. After completing his undergraduate studies in law and graduate studies in business, he worked in the administrations of two former governors of the state, Emilio Chuayfett and Arturo Montiel. Indeed, Montiel handpicked EPN to be his successor as Governor, helping him to secure the PRI nomination and victory in the election in 2005.

Peña Nieto has acquired his political success and momentum from four main factors:
1.    The success of his governorship:  During his campaign for the governorship, Peña Nieto presented more than 400 goals for his term, and he has consistently reminded the voters that he is fulfilling these campaign promises. His main focus has been on major infrastructure projects and the building and opening of daycares and health clinics. In the polls, Peña Nieto has captured a consistently high approval rating from mexiquenses (residents of the State of Mexico) for his performance as governor. The state is the country’s most populous state, and building his base there will provide a solid foundation for a national campaign.

2.    The media: Renowned commentator Carmen Aristegui has noted that the election of 2012 may well be Mexico’s first presidential election to be decided by the television stations. By this she did not only mean that TV coverage would be essential to the outcome of the election, but rather that the two leading TV companies, Televisa and TV Azteca, have clearly already chosen their candidate. The exposure given to Peña Nieto by both of the country’s predominant media outlets means that he has become a household name not only in the valley of Mexico, but across the nation. His 2010 “State of the State of Mexico” address was televised nationally, granting him priceless publicity. The coverage given to his glamorous private life has been an essential complement to this.

3.    Charisma and private life: Peña Nieto is a young, attractive, and charismatic politician. He has dedicated a lot of time during his governorship to public events, meetings with his constituents and appearances in communities across the state. On top of this, Peña Nieto’s recent marriage to actress Angelica Rivera has added extra glamour to his profile and has automatically gained another circle of followers due to his wife´s popularity in the entertainment business as a telenovela star. This charm and charisma has helped Peña Nieto’s claim to represent a new face for the PRI, one that stands in stark contrast to the fearsome, gray, or conservative faces of former times.

4.    The forces behind him: Although Peña Nieto and his promoters are keen to portray as a young politician who represents the “new face of the PRI”, there are fears that the political forces behind him are anything but. From the TV stations to big business, Peña Nieto has succeeded in gaining the support of some of the most conservative elites in Mexican society. Most intriguing is the supposed link between him and former President Carlos Salinas de Gortari. Speculation on this matter has grown to such an extent that Peña Nieto was forced to publicly deny any association with Salinas in a recent TV interview with Carlos Loret de Mola.  Despite his rejection of this link, many commentators in Mexico see Peña Nieto as a front for the same PRI forces that used to run the country. Denise Dresser has called him a “Potemkin politician”, whose true colors will only be revealed when he reaches the presidency.

Beatriz Paredes:
Beatriz Paredes has been one of the most high profile figures on the Mexican political scene for over a decade, combining an activism in favor of women’s rights and social issues with a steady rise in the PRI party ranks. The Tlaxcala native began her political career in 1974 at the age of 21 as a state deputy and rapidly rose in importance in state politics, eventually becoming governor of the state in 1987, the first female governor of Tlaxcala and only the 2nd female governor in Mexico.  She has served in both the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate and held her first diplomatic post as Ambassador of Cuba, appointed by President Carlos Salinas in 1993.

Her commitment to the cause of women and indigenous populations in the PRI has allowed her to gain support not only within her party, but also from outsiders who admire her dedication to topics that have traditionally been ignored in mainstream Mexican politics. She has been a strong advocate for abortion rights and same-sex marriage, and has a firm following among young priistas.

Paredes became president of the PRI in 2007, and successfully coordinated the party’s success in the 2009 Congressional elections. This was to be the high point of her term, as 2010 brought disappointments for the PRI in gubernatorial elections across Mexico, and in early 2011, the party suffered two setbacks in Guerrero and Baja California Sur. Paredes stepped down as PRI president on March 4, 2011, and has publicly declared her intention of running for the PRI nomination. Analysts have noted that Paredes’ reputation has been damaged by the PRI’s losses over the past year, but that she remains a viable alternative should Peña Nieto be forced out of the race. Questions remain as to whether the Mexican electorate is ready to vote for a female candidate for the presidency; however, if she were to capture the PRI nomination, it would likely not be major handicap.

Manlio Fabio Beltrones:
Manlio Fabio Beltrones stands out among the PRI contenders as a dedicated party servant and as a representative of the old guard. A lifelong PRI member, Beltrones has held prestigious positions within his party from early on in his career. Beltrones served as a federal deputy from his native Sonora in the 1980s and as governor of his home state from 1991-1997. He later served as President of the Senate from 2006-2007, and was again elected to this post for the 2010-2011 term.

Beltrones has impressive credentials across the many different wings of the PRI. Having served in such a wide variety of positions, including President of the PRI´s state committee in Sonora, Undersecretary of Gobernación (the Federal Interior Ministry) as well as Secretary General of Confederación Nacional de Organizaciones Populares (CNOP), Beltrones can call on support networks from the local to the federal and from grassroots organizations right up to the elites within the party. He openly embraces classical PRI ideological tenets focusing on the dominance of the state and the importance of Mexican sovereignty.

This traditional approach to politics is the major weakness in Beltrones’ political armor. He is seen by many voters as being “old PRI” to the core and has a particular problem among younger voters, who view him as stuffy and conservative. Particularly in contrast to Peña Nieto’s, Beltrones’ popularity is weak. Nonetheless, Beltrones is a political operator to be reckoned with and, should Peña Nieto fall, Beltrones is well placed to pick up the baton.

Fidel Herrera
In a recent interview with Carmen Aristegui, PRI party leader Humberto Moreira mentioned former Veracruz governor, Fidel Herrera Beltrán as a possible candidate for 2012. Herrera himself has made it clear that he has not ruled out the possibility of a run for the PRI nomination, and his professional history and solid political credentials make him an interesting proposition. Universally recognized as an impressive political orator, as well as being highly educated (he has a Master’s and Doctorate in Law from the Universidad Veracruzana), he would make a strong sparring partner in any national debate.

Herrera has been politically active from an early age, as founder and leader of the National Youth Revolutionary Movement, then as federal deputy a number of times for different constituencies. As governor of Veracruz, he focused on restructuring public institutions, foreign investment, and building up the state’s strongest economic sectors.

It is still unlikely that Fidel Herrera will emerge as a leading contender for the PRI nomination, partly because his reputation has been tainted by a scandal involving the use of federal funds to support PRI candidates. However, he is a power broker whose support will greatly aid whoever hopes to win the candidacy.

As with the other two main parties, the process for deciding the PRI candidate for president is just beginning. Many twists and turns are sure to affect the eventual outcome of the contest. We will continue to follow developments on this blog in the weeks and months to come.

All images courtesy of Wikipedia